Subj : DAY1 2/5 Risk Area TX
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Sun Nov 23 2025 08:55:31

ACUS01 KWNS 231254
SWODY1
SPC AC 231253

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF WEST TX....

....SUMMARY...
A few severe storms capable of large hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening across parts of west Texas.

....West TX...
A large upper low currently over AZ will track northeastward into
NM, with a 70+ knot mid-level speed max approaching west TX by this
afternoon.  Ahead of this feature, southerly low-level winds will
help transport 50s dewpoints into much of west TX ahead of a diffuse
dryline.  Most CAM solutions suggest that scattered thunderstorms
will form along this dryline and track northeastward for a few
hours.  Given the strength of deep-layer shear, supercell structures
will be likely with a risk of a large hail and perhaps a tornado.
Storms should weaken by late evening as they move into a
progressively less unstable air mass and diurnal cooling ensues.

...Hart/Broyles.. 11/23/2025

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