Subj : Flooding Likely Texas To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Thu Nov 20 2025 08:07:51 AWUS01 KWNH 201019 FFGMPD TXZ000-201600- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1235 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 518 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025 Areas affected...portions of central TX Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 201015Z - 201600Z Summary...Another round of heavy rain with flash flood potential appears to be organizing across western portions of the Edwards Plateau. Areas of training are likely to produce hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches and 3-hr totals of 2-4 inches (locally higher) across portions of central TX. A few instances of flash flooding will be likely through 16Z. Discussion...Between 09-10Z, thunderstorm coverage has been increasing across western portions of the Edwards Plateau, from near SJT, south-southwest toward the Rio Grande. This recent increase could be related to increasing ascent ahead of an approaching mid-level trough over AZ and northwestern Mexico, which was beginning to acquire a negative tilt, but was still located a bit west of the region. In addition, 925-850 mb winds remained in the 20-30 kt range from the S to SSE, continuing to transport anomalous low level moisture northward from the western Gulf into central TX where 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE was estimated by the 09Z SPC mesoanalysis page. Orographic lift across the Edwards Plateau and a recent increase of low level convergence are also contributing factors to the recent expansion of thunderstorms. Recent RAP guidance indicates an axis or axes of low level convergence aligning from Val Verde County toward the vicinity of San Angelo through 16Z, matching the orientation of the mean steering flow from the SSW. This signal, when combined with weak right-entrance region divergence tied to an upper level jet east of the upper level trough, is expected to result in areas of training with 1 to 2 inches of rain per hour, and 2 to 4 inches of rain in 3 hours or less time (locally higher possible). In addition, recent WoFS guidance has been increasing probabilities for 2+ inches of rain from near Val Verde County, north to northeastward to just southeast of San Angelo over the next few hours, with the 09Z cycle displaying a 40-70 percent probability of exceeding 2 inches through 15Z across this corridor. The anomalously moist environment will support locally high rainfall intensities which should overcome dry antecedent conditions, supporting at least a localized flash flood concern over the next 3-6 hours, with locally considerable impacts possible across any urban/impervious surfaces. Otto ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT... ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC... LAT...LON 32389946 32119884 31699846 30639852 29619945 28910033 29010170 30760171 32090080 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1) .