Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Sun Nov 09 2025 10:13:37 ACUS01 KWNS 091245 SWODY1 SPC AC 091243 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sun Nov 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today from parts of Florida northeastward into the eastern Carolinas. ....Synopsis... A trio of shortwave troughs will rotate through the primary upper trough over the central and eastern CONUS today, resulting in significant amplification to the overall upper pattern. By early tomorrow morning, deep upper troughing will cover the central and eastern CONUS with strong upper ridging over the western CONUS as well. Lead shortwave trough within the trio is currently moving east across the OH Valley with an attendant surface low over southern OH. A cold front extends southwestward from this low into the northwest Gulf. A stalled frontal zone also exists from the southern Delmarva Peninsula into northwest NC. The cold front is forecast to move quickly eastward throughout the day, while the stalled front transitions into a warm front and moves northward into more of the Mid-Atlantic. Thunderstorms are expected as this front interacts with the modestly moist and buoyant airmass from the FL Panhandle/northern FL through the Mid-Atlantic States. ....FL Panhandle/northern FL through the Mid-Atlantic... Filtered heating of the modestly moist airmass over the region will result in airmass destabilization. Poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy, but the overall buoyancy should still be sufficient for deep updrafts, particularly from the central FL Panhandle into northern FL/southern GA where the highest temperatures are anticipated. Thunderstorms are anticipated along and ahead of the front as it quickly moves eastward across the region. Highest thunderstorm coverage is expected across southern GA, with decreasing coverage with northern extent. Strong southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place as well, supporting the potential for organized storm structures. However, front-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear suggest a linear mode, with the fast-moving front likely undercutting updrafts quickly. Even so, a few damaging gusts are possible, particularly with any bowing structures that stay ahead of the front. Isolated hail is possible as well, primarily in the FL/GA border vicinity where buoyancy is greatest. ...Mosier/Squitieri.. 11/09/2025 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1) .