Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Sun Nov 02 2025 10:27:14

ACUS01 KWNS 021220
SWODY1
SPC AC 021218

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0618 AM CST Sun Nov 02 2025

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely today or tonight.

....Southeast...
An upper low centered over the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley early this
morning will continue east-southeastward toward the coastal
Southeast through tonight. Cool mid-level temperatures (-22C or
colder at 500mb) will be attendant to the upper low, with modest
boundary-layer heating preceding it across the Cumberland Plateau
toward the southern Appalachians. Steepening low/mid-level lapse
rates should allow surface-based parcels to reach their convective
temperatures into the 18-20z time frame. This will support isolated
thunderstorm development across northeast Alabama/northern Georgia
and eastern portions of Kentucky/Tennessee. Some small hail might
also occur with these low-topped thunderstorms.

Late tonight, a surface wave is expected to develop off the coast of
the Carolinas. A warmer/more moist air mass toward the coast will
accompany this developing low. It seems likely that the meaningful
warm sector will tend to remain focused offshore, although it is
conceivable that a few stronger storms might approach the immediate
coast/Outer Banks late tonight.

...Guyer/Kerr.. 11/02/2025

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