Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Thu Oct 30 2025 08:37:18

ACUS01 KWNS 301242
SWODY1
SPC AC 301240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025

Valid 301300Z - 311200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES/DELMARVA...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with an isolated damaging wind/tornado threat may
occur across the Mid-Atlantic states/Delmarva vicinity today.

....Mid-Atlantic/Delmarva...
The upper trough centered over the Cumberland Plateau/central
Appalachians will continue northeastward today toward the Northeast,
with the exit region of a strong polar jet similarly spreading from
the Mid-Atlantic/central Appalachians toward the Northeast. Beneath
diffluent flow aloft, a surface low will continue to deepen from the
Blue Ridge/Delmarva north-northeastward toward southeast/east New
York by tonight, with a northward-flux of a seasonally moist air
mass (low/middle 60s F surface dewpoints) along the immediate
coast/I-95 general vicinity.

This low-level moisture/modest buoyancy will continue to
semi-interface with a northward-transitioning low-level jet across
the Mid-Atlantic, with strong low-level shear/SRH accentuated by
backed (southeasterly) near-surface winds to the east of the surface
low track. This scenario could yield a few supercells, including
related potential for locally damaging winds and/or a tornado today.

...Guyer/Weinman.. 10/30/2025

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