Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Wed Oct 29 2025 08:44:44

ACUS01 KWNS 291241
SWODY1
SPC AC 291239

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

....SUMMARY...
A few strong to locally severe storms could occur late tonight and
early Thursday across eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia.

....Eastern North Carolina/Southeast Virginia...
Pronounced large-scale trough amplification will occur through late
tonight and early Thursday over the Eastern States, centered over
the Tennessee Valley/Cumberland Plateau. A strong polar jet in
association with this trough will develop toward/east of the
Appalachians tonight, with steady surface cyclogenesis occurring
particularly late tonight toward the central Appalachians/Blue Ridge
vicinity, with the 00z ECMWF continuing to exhibit a somewhat
stronger surface low as compared to other global guidance.

Low-level moistening will occur near the coast late tonight
including coastal portions of North Carolina and Outer Banks,
northward into southeast Virginia and Delmarva vicinity. Modestly
increasing potential for mostly elevated convection/isolated
lightning flashes will occur over inland parts of the region, but
some near-surface based storms could materialize near the immediate
coast, particularly if/where surface dewpoints approach 60 F late
tonight and early Thursday. Limited buoyancy even for near-coastal
areas should limit the overall magnitude/likelihood of the severe
storm potential. However, a couple of locally severe storms could
materialize in the presence of supercell-supportive deep-layer shear
(effective magnitudes 45+ kt) and moderately enlarged low-level
hodographs, with related potential for localized wind damage and/or
a brief tornado.

...Guyer/Weinman.. 10/29/2025

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