Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfa
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Sun Oct 26 2025 09:02:25

FOUS30 KWBC 260820
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
420 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sun Oct 26 2025 - 12Z Mon Oct 27 2025

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

Energy rotating beneath a mid-level low centered over the Middle 
Mississippi Valley will help propel the convective complex through 
the Southeast. Storms will move into a moisture and instability 
rich environment across the immediate Mississippi/Alabama/Florida 
coast during the afternoon/evening. Along the immediate coast, 
precipitable water values will be between 1.5-2", which will be in 
the 90th percentile of PWATs for this time of year. MUCAPE between
1000-1500J/Kg should provide enough instability to support 
1-3in./hr rain rates in some places. Urban areas will be especially
susceptible to runoff from excessive rainfall. THere continues to
be a growing consensus for slower cell motions and backbuilding 
storms over the immediate coast Sunday night. The Slight was
maintained for the Gulf Coast spanning from far eastern Louisiana
to the Florida Panhandle, however the northern boundary was
expanded further north into southern Mississippi and Alabama. A
broad Marginal remains in place from the central Gulf Coast to
southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and southwest Kentucky.

Campbell/Kebede


Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Oct 27 2025 - 12Z Tue Oct 28 2025

.... THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

Low pressure tracking through the southern tier will pivot to the
northeast allowing for convection to spread across the southern 
Appalachians and Southeast. The low level flow will enter a
relatively more stable environment that will reduce the the risk
for excessive rainfall; however guidance continues to depict
isolated maximums near 2 inches across the region. A Marginal Risk
area remains in effect across eastern Tennessee, eastern Georgia,
western South Dakota and western North Carolina.

Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 28 2025 - 12Z Wed Oct 29 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell
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