Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Dec 09 2025 16:16:21

ACUS01 KWNS 091616
SWODY1
SPC AC 091614

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1014 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
Upper pattern will remain active today/tonight as a low-amplitude
shortwave trough progresses quickly eastward through the OH Valley
ahead of a more substantial shortwave trough moving southeastward
out of the Canadian Prairies and through the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest. By 12Z Wednesday, this second shortwave will likely
extend from the Lake Michigan vicinity southwestward into northeast
KS/northwest MO.

Progression of this second shortwave will reinforce the already dry
and stable airmass in place across much of CONUS, precluding
thunderstorms. Some modest moisture return is anticipated late
tonight/early tomorrow across the western Gulf, but much of this
moisture will remain offshore. Some low-level moisture also remains
in place across south FL, even in the wake of the cold front now
settled across the Florida Straits. Even with this low-level
moisture still in place, modest and shallow buoyancy, and limited
forcing for ascent should preclude thunderstorms across south FL
today.

...Mosier/Moore.. 12/09/2025

$$

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