Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Dec 08 2025 00:44:12

AWUS01 KWNH 080044
FFGMPD
FLZ000-080300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1257
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
742 PM EST Sun Dec 07 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the Central Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080041Z - 080300Z

Summary...A combination of locally intense rainfall and cell
training should continue this evening which could cause flash
flooding in urban areas.

Discussion...Thunderstorms with isolated maximum rainfall rates
approaching 1.5 inches per hour have been moving on-shore and
tracking northeastward from near Tampa to Cape Canaveral early
this evening.  These storms appear to be associated with a
mid-level vorticity maximum approaching from the eastern Gulf of
America along the axis of a 2+ inch precipitable water plume and
axis of boundary layer moisture flux convergence.  Radar estimates
from TBW/Tampa Bay indicate that hourly amounts have peaked near
1.75 inches in parts of Pinellas and Pasco counties and that the
maximum rainfall totals were approaching 3.25 inches in the same
area.  These amounts were embedded within a broader 1.5 to 2,5
inch stripe of rainfall extending towards the central portion of
the peninsula.

With additional showers and thunderstorms located off-shore...the
potential for flooding due to multiple rounds of heavy rainfall
exists.  The 18Z HREF/RRFS showed the probability of 1 inch per
hour rates diminishing to less than 5 percent along the west-coast
by 08/03Z.  Their placement has been a bit too far north with the
intense rates. Even so...the HREF captured the evolution in the
broadest sense and was used it as a starting point for the MPD.=20

Maximum Hourly amounts 1" to 1.75" and local totals to 3.5" appear
possible where cells train and/or back-build, which would be most
problematic in urban areas and regions of poor drainage as well as
along small streams.

Bann

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6pVmRublY1OVsAJkJg8O46F9ZFJcJq11wZG7H7yfyyETA4AMO-6DQLkDZoaZVaqobmxQ=
aeSyDnVcKLlM3SGwH4kZuK0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON   28538137 28538106 28328102 28008125 27678210=20
            27488265 27958282 28338219 28488162=20

=3D =3D =3D
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