Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Dec 07 2025 16:20:38

ACUS01 KWNS 071620
SWODY1
SPC AC 071619

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1019 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025

Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible across
parts of the Florida Peninsula beginning late this afternoon through
the evening.

....Florida Peninsula...
Late morning radar/satellite composite shows a rain shield and
embedded convection along a west-east oriented, southward-sagging
front over the north-central Gulf.  This rain activity is possibly
the result of a weak disturbance moving eastward across the northern
Gulf of America within the base of a larger-scale mean trough over
the central and eastern part of North America.  This disturbance is
forecast to move into north FL late today and east of the FL/GA
coasts by mid-late evening.

Considerable cloudiness will likely persist near/north of I-4 and
combine with meager low to mid tropospheric lapse rates to thereby
limit destabilization.  However, a seasonably moist airmass will
probably yield a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE prior to an increasing
prevalence of showers/thunderstorms moving east from the Gulf into
the west/northern portions of the Peninsula towards late this
afternoon and evening.  Ample mid- to high-level flow will support
storm-scale rotation contingent on a sufficiently strong updraft or
two developing within this zone of convection.  The risk for
localized strong/damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado may
accompany the strongest storms, mainly during the 22-08 UTC period,
as this threat shifts from northwest to south across the Peninsula.

...Smith/Barnes.. 12/07/2025

$$

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