Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Dec 07 2025 12:34:06

ACUS01 KWNS 071234
SWODY1
SPC AC 071232

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0632 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado or two are possible
across parts of the Florida Peninsula late this afternoon and
evening.

....Florida Peninsula...
Thunderstorms will develop today across the north-central to
northeast Gulf along a largely west-east oriented front. Downstream
cloudiness/precipitation along and north of the front will support
pronounced differential heating across the north-central FL
Peninsula. Latest guidance continues to suggest that scattered
convection will move onshore late this afternoon/early evening
within broadly cyclonic flow aloft over the Southeast. Poor
mid-level lapse rates will be a limiting factor to convective
intensity (reference 12Z sounding from TBW). But, adequate
deep-layer shear will exist for transient mid-level rotation. With a
warm boundary layer forecast across central FL, a few strong gusts
capable of localized damaging winds are possible. Modest low-level
shear/SRH may also be sufficient for a brief tornado or two.

...Gleason/Jewell.. 12/07/2025

$$

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