Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Dec 07 2025 05:43:03

ACUS01 KWNS 070543
SWODY1
SPC AC 070541

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FL
PENINSULA...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado or two are possible,
mainly across central Florida during the late afternoon and evening.

....FL Peninsula...
Abundant convective development is expected later this morning
across the north-central to northeast Gulf along a largely
west/east-oriented quasi-stationary front. Downstream
cloudiness/rain along/north of the front will support pronounced
differential boundary-layer heating across it, from central to north
FL. With most guidance indicating potential for an MCV to evolve
from the morning convection, within the broadly cyclonic mid-level
flow regime across the Southeast, it is plausible that convection
may strengthen along the baroclinic zone towards peak heating. Weak
mid-level lapse rates will remain a key limiting factor to
convective intensity. But adequate deep-layer shear will exist for
transient mid-level rotation. With a warm boundary layer anticipated
across central to south FL, a few strong gusts capable of localized
damaging winds are possible. While the 00Z NAM appears to be an
aggressive outlier with stronger low-level mass response, expected
modest low-level SRH may be sufficient for a brief tornado or two.

...Grams/Thornton.. 12/07/2025

$$

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