Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Dec 06 2025 20:01:02

ACUS01 KWNS 062000
SWODY1
SPC AC 061959

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Potential for thunderstorms across the CONUS appears limited through
Sunday morning.

....20Z Update...
Recent TAMDAR sounding data from the Florida Peninsula show very
poor lapse rates and implied layers of subsidence. This is also
evident in forecast soundings. Given minimal ascent throughout the
troposphere, the potential for thunderstorms appears lower than 10%
through Sunday morning.

...Wendt.. 12/06/2025

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025/

....Synopsis...
A progressive flow pattern will remain over the Lower 48 states
today.  In the low levels, a front will reside over the Gulf and
extend east-northeastward across the northern half of the FL
Peninsula and east of the Carolina coast.  The 12 UTC Tampa, FL raob
showed poor lapse rates.  Limited buoyancy coupled with
weak/negligible low-level convergence/large-scale ascent will act to
limit convective coverage and intensity across the central FL
Peninsula today.

$$

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