Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Dec 06 2025 00:23:59 FOUS30 KWBC 060023 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 723 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025 Day 1 Valid 01Z Sat Dec 06 2025 - 12Z Sat Dec 06 2025 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Chenard Day 2 Valid 12Z Sat Dec 06 2025 - 12Z Sun Dec 07 2025 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Pereira Day 3 Valid 12Z Sun Dec 07 2025 - 12Z Mon Dec 08 2025 ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/NORTHERN PENINSULA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... 20Z Update... The 12Z models still present plenty of uncertainty. In addition to limited instability, which may limit rates and the potential for short-term runoff concerns; those models that do signal some threat for flooding show notable north-south differences with their placement for heavy amounts. That said, the previous Marginal Risk generally covers the envelope of deterministic models that suggest there is some potential for at least isolated flash flooding. This includes the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and the UKMet. Pereira Previous discussion... A quasi-stationary front draped near the FL Panhandle may become convectively active by Day 3, though uncertainty remains high as instability still looks to be the main limiting factor. While many models indicate unproblematic rainfall totals, other models (the 00z GFS in particular) depict the potential for localized training of convective cells along the front with heavy rainfall within nearly unidirectional westerly flow aloft. Maintained an inherited MRGL risk for now with localized flash flooding possible should 3"+ totals occur over a short period in a relatively sensitive area. Churchill Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6WBU59QqD-oyBoPsurtESOATCth4D1mP1I5GsiHKjqve= PHBcRFlxCdMnYrwK7UsbP4oLCClZXkOeBRZhj-5RpYN_6MA$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6WBU59QqD-oyBoPsurtESOATCth4D1mP1I5GsiHKjqve= PHBcRFlxCdMnYrwK7UsbP4oLCClZXkOeBRZhj-5RHhXyeDM$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6WBU59QqD-oyBoPsurtESOATCth4D1mP1I5GsiHKjqve= PHBcRFlxCdMnYrwK7UsbP4oLCClZXkOeBRZhj-5RwMNv1n8$=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .