Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Dec 05 2025 20:01:18

FOUS30 KWBC 052001
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
301 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Day 1
Valid 16Z Fri Dec 05 2025 - 12Z Sat Dec 06 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Cook/Churchill

Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Dec 06 2025 - 12Z Sun Dec 07 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Pereira

Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Dec 07 2025 - 12Z Mon Dec 08 2025

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/NORTHERN PENINSULA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA...

20Z Update...
The 12Z models still present plenty of uncertainty. In addition to
limited instability, which may limit rates and the potential for=20
short-term runoff concerns; those models that do signal some threat
for flooding show notable north-south differences with their=20
placement for heavy amounts. That said, the previous Marginal Risk=20
generally covers the envelope of deterministic models that suggest=20
there is some potential for at least isolated flash flooding. This=20
includes the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and the UKMet.

Pereira

Previous discussion...
A quasi-stationary front draped near the FL Panhandle may become=20
convectively active by Day 3, though uncertainty remains high as=20
instability still looks to be the main limiting factor. While=20
many models indicate unproblematic rainfall totals, other models=20
(the 00z GFS in particular) depict the potential for localized=20
training of convective cells along the front with heavy rainfall=20
within nearly unidirectional westerly flow aloft. Maintained an=20
inherited MRGL risk for now with localized flash flooding possible=20
should 3"+ totals occur over a short period in a relatively=20
sensitive area.

Churchill

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6toReeVhj4oI8cUINyHt3-a02TB9d3DJTw_ZgdVFmaI9=
f08ggC4Q40y9sck4WmLx1-d375USGCYjT9Mx4h9PLn07qjI$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6toReeVhj4oI8cUINyHt3-a02TB9d3DJTw_ZgdVFmaI9=
f08ggC4Q40y9sck4WmLx1-d375USGCYjT9Mx4h9PDDtWRYY$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6toReeVhj4oI8cUINyHt3-a02TB9d3DJTw_ZgdVFmaI9=
f08ggC4Q40y9sck4WmLx1-d375USGCYjT9Mx4h9P8fFKU00$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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