Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Dec 05 2025 15:05:06

FOUS30 KWBC 051504
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1004 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Day 1
Valid 16Z Fri Dec 05 2025 - 12Z Sat Dec 06 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is lessthan 5 pe=
rcent.

Cook/Churchill

Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Dec 06 2025 - 12Z Sun Dec 07 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is lessthan 5 pe=
rcent.

Churchill

Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Dec 07 2025 - 12Z Mon Dec 08 2025

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OFTHE FLORID=
A PANHANDLE/NORTHERN PENINSULA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA...

A quasi-stationary front draped near the FL Panhandle may become
convectively active by Day 3, though uncertainty remains high as
instability still looks to be the main limiting factor. While=20
manymodels indicate unproblematic rainfall totals, other models=20
(the 00z GFS in particular) depict the potential for localized=20
trainingof convective cells along the front with heavy rainfall=20
within nearly unidirectional westerly flow aloft. Maintained an=20
inherited MRGL risk for now with localized flash flooding possible
should 3"+totals occur over a short period in a relatively=20
sensitive area.=20

Churchill

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4bAmPPlEUq7l2RDWNDtnxwTYaZW6PUewOXyA0A-TAq3N=
tgbgn7-emMazbmaG0WDBIamxJjjYMmv0v5BNluSef2mZlHY$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4bAmPPlEUq7l2RDWNDtnxwTYaZW6PUewOXyA0A-TAq3N=
tgbgn7-emMazbmaG0WDBIamxJjjYMmv0v5BNluSercN7tYA$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4bAmPPlEUq7l2RDWNDtnxwTYaZW6PUewOXyA0A-TAq3N=
tgbgn7-emMazbmaG0WDBIamxJjjYMmv0v5BNluSeWdKK9II$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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