Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2249
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Dec 03 2025 01:13:47

ACUS11 KWNS 030113
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030112=20
MEZ000-NHZ000-030715-

Mesoscale Discussion 2249
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0712 PM CST Tue Dec 02 2025

Areas affected...coastal northern New England

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 030112Z - 030715Z

SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow rates on the order of 1/2 to 1+
inches per hour are possible across southern Maine this evening,
with heaviest rates most probable near Down East coastal areas
closer to and after Midnight EST, as strengthening and gusty winds
contribute to reduced visibilities and blowing/drifting.

DISCUSSION...A deepening surface cyclone is forecast to continue an
east-northeastward migration, generally south through east of the
Cape Cod vicinity through mid to late evening.  This will be
accompanied by a zone of strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric
frontogenetic forcing to its north through northeast.  At
mid-levels, the Rapid Refresh indicates that this will shift across
southern Maine through southern New Brunswick, where forecast
soundings indicate that  strengthening lift in (roughly) the 600-500
mb layer may coincide with temperatures most conducive to large
dendritic ice crystal growth (around -15 C).

There is notable spread within and among the various model output
concerning these details, and potentially varying rates of cyclone
and upward vertical motion intensification.  However, in the
presence of sub-freezing thermodynamic profiles, guidance generally
indicates snow rates on the order of 1/2 to 1 inch per hour are
possible this evening across much of southern Maine.  Heaviest rates
appear most probable near immediate coastal areas of Maine,
particularly across Down East coastal Maine closer to and after
05-06Z, when strengthening and gusty east-northeasterly surface
winds may contribute to considerable blowing/drifting and reduced
visibilities.

...Kerr.. 12/03/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!63l5TsRTVKHsciZtEOS1CusHX6FbJvW3N87r-cm2eaTmCmslOHiwJhtZEHWE5wtAt6vsNEhgG=
9t18_Dc17nUEMUxiHc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

LAT...LON   43277133 44757076 45456714 44046610 43626951 43127081
            43277133=20


=3D =3D =3D
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