Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2244
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Dec 02 2025 07:14:49

ACUS11 KWNS 020714
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020714=20
FLZ000-021115-

Mesoscale Discussion 2244
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 AM CST Tue Dec 02 2025

Areas affected...the coastal Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 020714Z - 021115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Mini-supercells may eventually move ashore, affecting
primarily coastal counties of the Florida Panhandle. A brief tornado
cannot be ruled out later tonight.

DISCUSSION...Radar shows multiple small supercells over the
northeastern Gulf of America, ahead of a cold front and along a warm
front. The warm front is currently offshore as can be seen with
backed surface winds over land and temperatures in the 60s F.=20

Instability is currently weak, with minimal lightning detected even
with the offshore activity. Conditionally, weak tornadoes may still
occur assuming the warm front moves ashore.

Recent hourly pressure falls over 1 mb indicate good column warming
and likely erosion of the cooler air mass. Over the next few hours,
surface winds will gradually veer, with temperatures likely jumping
along the coast. Low-level shear will remain quite strong, again
with instability being the limiting factor. However, any supercells
that move onshore coincident with the warm front may result in
localized brief tornado risk over a limited amount of inland area.

...Jewell/Mosier.. 12/02/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6iuzW7hlJQK4LAILDIuJrRd5L001Z0NjGmNmSIi8Tzu2Je82_oTsPl7QP19DvdoEsXs_V3wdw=
f8Pke4ngwN8G8Eejxk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON   30388653 30608620 30568581 30438497 30408437 30348416
            29948418 29528501 29598536 29938555 30158590 30248608
            30388653=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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