Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2243 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Dec 02 2025 03:11:15 ACUS11 KWNS 020311 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020310=20 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-020915- Mesoscale Discussion 2243 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0910 PM CST Mon Dec 01 2025 Areas affected...western/northern Kentucky and adjacent portions of the Ohio Valley Concerning...Heavy snow=20 Valid 020310Z - 020915Z SUMMARY...A narrow developing corridor of heavy snow rates around or in excess of 1 inch per hour appears possible, spreading across western through northern Kentucky between Midnight-4 AM EST (11 PM-3 AM CST). DISCUSSION...Multiple speed maxima are embedded within a broad belt of strong west-southwesterly mid/upper flow now overspreading the southern Great Plains through Atlantic Seaboard. Around 500 mb, the strongest of these is nosing east-northeast of the Ozark Plateau through the lower Ohio Valley, accompanied by a focused area of increasingly difluent and divergent upper flow which is forecast to overspread much of Kentucky and adjacent portions of the Ohio Valley late this evening into the overnight hours.=20=20 It appears that large-scale forcing for ascent will be aided by lower/mid-tropospheric frontogenesis, which Rapid Refresh forecast soundings indicate will contribute to a period of strong lift maximizing in mid-levels, within a corridor near the Ohio River.=20 This is forecast to include a layer near/below 500 mb, where saturating profiles with temperatures around -15 C will be most conducive to large dendritic ice crystal growth.=20=20 Although lower-level temperatures across portions of western through northern Kentucky are fluctuating a bit, from just above to below freezing, cold advection to the northwest of a developing frontal wave is expected to support snow or a transition to snow as heavier precipitation commences. As precipitable water content increases to 0.6 to 0.7 + inches along the frontal zone, guidance suggests at least a couple hour period of heavy snow rates on the order of 1-2 inches per hour is possible, developing near or to the west/north of Hopkinsville and Bowling Green before spreading toward areas around/north/northeast of Lexington between 05-09Z. ...Kerr.. 12/02/2025 ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9vIEw4K2HEoYo4_1PQBirk4cMUhH-g0rCCbB_AXxNphDeFI3or2JolgQxg_ZzC5LrJfYS29PH= UNrjwnT9106pYIXYCY$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG... LAT...LON 39068358 38618257 37878387 37028611 36468814 36448918 37308815 38238585 39068358=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .