Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2241 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Nov 29 2025 21:18:35 ACUS11 KWNS 292118 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292117=20 TXZ000-292315- Mesoscale Discussion 2241 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 Areas affected...Central Texas to the Texas Coastal Plain Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20 Valid 292117Z - 292315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is underway across north-central TX and across parts of the TX Coastal Plain. Thunderstorms are expected to generally remain sub-severe, but a few strong/severe storms are possible. DISCUSSION...The early stages of thunderstorm development are underway near the DFW metro area where a cold front is impinging on northward returning moisture. Modest moisture advection will likely continue immediately ahead of the front across portions of central and northeastern TX for the next several hours, supporting around 500 J/kg MLCAPE and the potential for additional thunderstorms. Despite strong mid-level flow over the region, recent ACARS soundings and RAP/HRRR forecast soundings show very modest/narrow buoyancy profiles on the northern fringe of the returning moisture. This, along with the undercutting nature of the front, should hinder overall updraft intensities. Nonetheless, damaging winds, and perhaps instances of severe hail, appear possible as storms spread east/southeast given a favorable kinematic environment. Further south, shallow convective showers have been percolating over the past 1-2 hours along and north of the I-10 corridor west/northwest of the Houston metro within a low-level confluence zone/residual gravity wave. Cumulus has gradually become more cellular within this zone and at least one attempt at deep convection is noted as temperatures warm into the upper 70s and low 80s - a few degrees warmer than anticipated by recent guidance. High-res models continue to show considerable spread/uncertainty on thunderstorm coverage within this zone in the 21-00 UTC time frame, but the warm temperatures and persistent, albeit weak, mesoscale lift suggest that at least a few additional attempts at deep convection should be anticipated prior to 00z and the arrival of the cold front later tonight. If deep convection can mature, better buoyancy (1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and slightly better low-level helicity near the surface warm front may support a relatively higher chance for strong/severe thunderstorms, including the potential for a brief tornado, though confidence in this potential is low. Given the modest environment across northern/central TX and uncertainty pertaining to thunderstorm coverage along the Coastal Plain, watch issuance is not expected. ...Moore/Gleason.. 11/29/2025 ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8iSZdYONNe2pyaGeUUNGuWZpxVNDV6HOc6wGsz9dR0GXDjAFPYkx9oduPb4-cD4LalOCVFOlw= 1Mz5WjZJbXUn53Qfao$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 29769492 29539539 29449608 29499674 29659725 29839771 30399801 31779815 32259799 32509782 32759750 32909719 32959678 32899635 32739612 30839448 30469431 30209439 29999457 29769492=20 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .