Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Nov 28 2025 12:27:22

ACUS01 KWNS 281227
SWODY1
SPC AC 281225

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0625 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are anticipated today.

....Southern Plains...
Morning water vapor imagery shows the upper ridge that has dominated
the weather over the southwest states is rapidly breaking down, as a
strong upper trough over OR approaches the Rockies.  Large-scale
height falls and increasing low-level warm/moist advection will
result in marginal instability over TX and the development of
scattered thunderstorms later today.

Convection has already begun to form over the Big Bend region of TX
this morning.  Thunderstorms will further develop over west TX
through early afternoon, then expand eastward into parts of OK and
central TX this evening.  Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates
will be present over the central/southern Plains, but limited
moisture return will generally keep CAPE values below 1000 J/kg and
limit updraft strength/severe potential.  Nevertheless, the
strongest storms this evening could produce small hail.

...Hart/Dean.. 11/28/2025

$$

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