Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Nov 28 2025 08:03:15

FOUS30 KWBC 280803
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
303 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

Day 1
Valid 12Z Fri Nov 28 2025 - 12Z Sat Nov 29 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Wegman

Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Nov 29 2025 - 12Z Sun Nov 30 2025

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

No changes were made to the Marginal Risk area from inherited.=20
While peak MUCAPE values Sunday afternoon reach up to around 700=20
J/kg, that level of instability will be relatively rare. The=20
trailing cold front behind a developing low over the Plains will=20
gradually settle along the upper Texas Coast into Louisiana. Gulf=20
moisture will be drawn northeastward along the advancing front,=20
resulting in rain and potentially training thunderstorms. The=20
storms will be moving over a portion of Texas and Louisiana that=20
has been very dry lately. The soils in this portion of eastern=20
Texas through central Louisiana should absorb much of the rainfall
expected. Given the potential for repeating/training storms across
the area, the Marginal Risk remains in place, though any flash=20
flooding would require multiple rounds of storms to move through.=20
The combination of dry soils and marginal instability will hold the
peak storm strength below anything capable of any more than=20
isolated flash flooding. This appears to be a lower end Marginal=20
risk given those limiting factors.=20

Wegman

Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Nov 30 2025 - 12Z Mon Dec 01 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Wegman


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5a8NpbSHa0it0CqqiLwnNJ5qeaBX5Za9FxqrK8xe_8sV=
S4D2Kt02JQrh6-NI-v8azZW_3k_SCmlVKA2cZkGsxBlYCMk$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5a8NpbSHa0it0CqqiLwnNJ5qeaBX5Za9FxqrK8xe_8sV=
S4D2Kt02JQrh6-NI-v8azZW_3k_SCmlVKA2cZkGsT05CbTI$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5a8NpbSHa0it0CqqiLwnNJ5qeaBX5Za9FxqrK8xe_8sV=
S4D2Kt02JQrh6-NI-v8azZW_3k_SCmlVKA2cZkGsFZVE4ZQ$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.