Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Nov 27 2025 19:41:17

ACUS01 KWNS 271941
SWODY1
SPC AC 271939

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Valid 272000Z - 281200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

....20z Update...
Only minor adjustments were made to the thunder line to account for
ongoing trends across the Florida peninsula. Otherwise, no
additional changes are needed. See previous discussion for more
information.

...Thornton.. 11/27/2025

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025/

....Synopsis and Discussion...
A large-scale upper trough encompassing much of the central/eastern
CONUS will develop slowly eastward through the period. Isolated
thunderstorm potential today will generally remain limited to parts
of south FL and the Keys along/ahead of a southward-moving cold
front. 11/12Z soundings from XMR/TBW/KEY show southwesterly winds
strengthening with height at mid/upper levels. While sufficient
deep-layer shear may exist to support a stronger thunderstorm or two
this afternoon, especially along the Atlantic Coast in south FL, the
presence of poor mid-level lapse rates and weak low-level winds
should hinder the risk for organized severe thunderstorms over land.
Isolated lightning flashes may also occur with snow bands occurring
in western NY off of Lake Ontario.

$$

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