Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2236
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Nov 27 2025 17:01:17

ACUS11 KWNS 271701
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271700=20
MIZ000-272200-

Mesoscale Discussion 2236
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Areas affected...Northern Lower Michigan

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 271700Z - 272200Z

SUMMARY...Snowfall rates of 1-2 inch per hour remain possible
through mid/late afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A dominant snow band off of Lake Michigan, with
upstream connection to Lake Superior, continues early this afternoon
in northern Lower Michigan. Dual-pol data from KAPX shows higher KDP
values within this band suggesting 1-2 inch per hour snowfall rates
are possible. Given limited change in the large-scale environment
over the next few hours, this band is expected to persist through
the afternoon. High-resolution ensemble guidance suggests this as
well. The most intense snowfall rates will likely being to wane by
late afternoon as mid-level ascent from a shortwave trough moves
away from the region. As this occurs, there may be a slight
southward wobble in the band as 850-700 mb winds subtly take on a
more northerly component.

...Wendt.. 11/27/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5NPznMou5L88rGlstUhxpQlc67_fyti2A3vhRpaIMVRpl-JbuuoPY1NhpI9Ge2crkzgAulnoD=
m-rpEnylwtlGZcofSY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...

LAT...LON   44358438 44878534 45088560 45208556 45458547 44668384
            44298383 44358438=20


=3D =3D =3D
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