Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Nov 27 2025 16:22:16

ACUS01 KWNS 271622
SWODY1
SPC AC 271620

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1020 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Valid 271630Z - 281200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
A large-scale upper trough encompassing much of the central/eastern
CONUS will develop slowly eastward through the period. Isolated
thunderstorm potential today will generally remain limited to parts
of south FL and the Keys along/ahead of a southward-moving cold
front. 11/12Z soundings from XMR/TBW/KEY show southwesterly winds
strengthening with height at mid/upper levels. While sufficient
deep-layer shear may exist to support a stronger thunderstorm or two
this afternoon, especially along the Atlantic Coast in south FL, the
presence of poor mid-level lapse rates and weak low-level winds
should hinder the risk for organized severe thunderstorms over land.
Isolated lightning flashes may also occur with snow bands occurring
in western NY off of Lake Ontario.

...Gleason/Wendt.. 11/27/2025

$$

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