Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2232
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Nov 25 2025 20:37:04

ACUS11 KWNS 252037
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252036=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-252230-

Mesoscale Discussion 2232
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Areas affected...Southeastern Mississippi into central Alabama

Concerning...Tornado Watch 641...

Valid 252036Z - 252230Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 641 continues.

SUMMARY...A brief tornado or two and isolated wind damage remain
possible where surface heating/low-level lapse rates remain
strongest this afternoon. A weakening trend can be expected with
eventual loss of daytime heating.

DISCUSSION...Overall trends for storms within WW 641 this afternoon
have been for relatively brief intensification. A few cells have
continued to show weak low-level rotation, but this has also been
rather transient. Local VAD data suggest low-level shear has
weakened slightly, but is still sufficient for brief tornado
potential. This potential will be maximized where surface heating
has been greatest: southwest of Birmingham and parts of
southern/east-central Alabama. Storms should be able to maintain
some intensity for the next 2-3 hours. Beyond that point,
diminishing surface heating will lead to a weakening trend late this
afternoon.

...Wendt.. 11/25/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5WSUFcxdy_iPenKkCjEWt0vzb-wD9WIMzm1BxRe1mK-6kuiNzwkNu7CNtcNaKc0PL5k1xdNtl=
ICfE7Go5bUh3iPdmIc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON   30918882 31128901 32308825 33068771 33398744 33508704
            33418632 33308567 32798550 32608544 31668621 31188732
            30918882=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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