Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2231
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Nov 25 2025 17:40:02

ACUS11 KWNS 251739
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251739=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-252015-

Mesoscale Discussion 2231
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Areas affected...Southwest into central Alabama...far southeastern
Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 251739Z - 252015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated supercell or two may eventually evolve out of
convection along a confluence band in southern/central Alabama. A
tornado or two and isolated wind/hail would be possible. The need
for a watch is not certain, but convective trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Convection has gradually been deepening along a
confluence zone in southwestern to central Alabama. A few of the
stronger updrafts have shown at least weak rotation over the past
hour. KBMX/KMXX VAD data show enlarged low-level hodographs near and
south of an effective warm front. Broad cyclonic flow across the
region will promote around 50 kts of effective shear in Alabama.
Forcing for ascent at mid-levels will remain weak, but this may also
allow development that occurs to remain discrete. The overall
expectation is for diurnal heating to slowly destabilize the
boundary layer this afternoon and allow for further strengthening of
updrafts. A couple of isolated supercells are at least possible
within this environment. Low-level shear will support a risk for a
tornado or two. Isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail
could also occur. Modest mid-level lapse rates and lack of better
forcing keep storm coverage and intensity uncertain, but a watch is
possible deepening on convective trends over the next couple of
hours.

...Wendt/Thompson.. 11/25/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9cng3bt_ZiR8biWlbn6PijIa8CYrgo98ddVKFzXFFPkVFKjAyh2wO6u6tY99cr_IH05fY-HYd=
LbznPCf1Of39XwAFao$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON   31138846 31548870 31978856 32658741 32878705 32968682
            32968634 32458610 31808657 31358719 31228766 31088803
            31048815 31048815 31138846=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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