Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Nov 25 2025 12:22:32

ACUS01 KWNS 251222
SWODY1
SPC AC 251221

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0621 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM EAST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA....

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the
Southeast/Deep South this morning into the early evening hours. A
couple tornadoes are possible in parts of eastern Mississippi and
central Alabama.

....MS/AL/GA...
A progressive mid-level shortwave trough is moving across west
TN/northern MS.  Strong forcing for ascent ahead of this trough has
resulted in a fast-moving line of showers and isolated thunderstorms
across northern AL this morning - now moving into northwest GA.
These storms are tracking into a progressively less unstable air
mass, with surface dewpoints only in the mid 50s.  This should limit
downdraft penetration to the surface and diminish the risk of
gusty/damaging winds in the next couple of hours.

In the wake of this activity, southerly low-level winds will allow
gradual return of the moist and moderately unstable air mass into
east-central MS and central/northern AL.  Large-scale forcing will
be weak the rest of the day, but pockets of daytime heating may be
sufficient for the re-development of scattered thunderstorms by
early afternoon.  Those storms that form will be in an environment
of 20-30 knots of southerly low-level winds and sufficient
deep-layer shear to promote transient supercell structures.
Therefore have maintained the ongoing SLGT risk, despite weak
forcing mechanisms.  Gusty winds and a risk of a few tornadoes are
the main concern.

...Hart/Dean.. 11/25/2025

$$

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