Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Nov 25 2025 08:25:16 AWUS01 KWNH 250825 FFGMPD GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-251400- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1249 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 324 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025 Areas affected...northern LA/MS border into central MS/northern AL Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 250823Z - 251400Z Summary...While the overall flash flood coverage looks to decrease later this morning across MS and AL, concerns remain for localized 2 to 3+ inch totals from hourly rainfall of 1 to 2+ inches. A threat of flash flooding will linger through 14Z. Discussion...08Z radar imagery showed an axis of strong thunderstorms extending from western LA near DRI, northeastward into central/northern MS. The most powerful section of this axis was in western MS, between TVR and JAN, where some of the strongest low level winds were observed with near 50 kt at 850 mb from the south. A low level confluence axis from western LA into northern MS remained a focus for thunderstorms, out ahead of a potent vorticity max located over AR and within the diffluent/divergent right-entrance region of an associated upper level jet max which extended across the MS Valley into the Midwest. Cloud tops on infrared satellite imagery have shown trends toward warming overall over the past 2-3 hours, but bursts of colder cloud tops remained, such as what was occurring over western MS at 08Z. A reservoir of 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE remained from central MS into central/southern LA with up to ~1000 J/kg MUCAPE northward into western TN. Short term forecasts from the RAP show that as the vorticity max over AR continues to translate toward the ENE, 925-850 mb winds will veer over southern MS/AL which will have the effect of weakening the existing axis of confluence across the region through 12Z. However, remnant low level convergence/confluence coincident with strong upper level ascent will continue a threat for heavy rain and periods of training. The environment will still be capable of localized rainfall rates over 2 in/hr but 1 to 2 inches in an hour will be more common. Therefore, through 14Z, a localized flash flood threat will remain from the LA/MS border into central MS and central to northern AL where 2 to 3+ inches of rain could fall in a 2 to 3 hour window, with the greatest concern for flash flooding across urban or otherwise sensitive/low-lying areas. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-jACpZSiCr5zOCEqvi3Hw1pmfCDcwp6u1VTDCrhLJLJpXYVKShjKP0joJgzuyv8YHhtI= qpK0qVxJeQoKvKualHte1yI$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...JAN...LCH...LIX...MEG...MOB... ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC... LAT...LON 34998668 34728550 33428524 32468689 31268959=20 30999128 31309200 31769195 32099144 32569074=20 33528925 34128831=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .