Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Nov 24 2025 22:00:10

AWUS01 KWNH 242200
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-250358-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1247
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
459 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Areas affected...east-central/northeast Texas, western Louisiana,
and southern Arkansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 242158Z - 250358Z

Summary...Areas of training thunderstorm continue to support 1-2.5
inch/hr rainfall rates at times.  These rain rates should support
at least isolated instances of flash flooding through the evening.

Discussion...Flash flood potential continues across the discussion
area.  This afternoon, several areas of scattered thunderstorms
(organized into clusters and small linear segments) have migrated
west to east across the discussion area.  Over the past hour, and
uptick in convective intensity has been noted across central Texas
along and east of the I-45 corridor.  An impressive 2.53 inch/hr
rain rates was measured at Athens, TX during that time.  Cells are
being influenced by 1) a stout mid-level shortwave trough via
water vapor that was advancing toward the region from west-central
Texas and 2) confluent low-level flow, which was maintaining 1.7
inch PW and 1000+ J/kg MUCAPE across the discussion area.  THe
storms were not congealed into a forward-propagating linear
segment, with localized axes of training continuing to support
heavier rainfall.  FFG thresholds continue to range in the 2-3.5
inch/hr range, suggesting that the bulk of the flash flood threat
will likely remain tied to urban and/or sensitive areas in the
short term.

Over time, ongoing convective activity will shift eastward through
the TX/LA border region (including Shreveport Metro), with spots
of 1-3 inch/hr rain rates continuing.  A cold front was making
slow progress to the east across central Texas, reducing stability
and ending the convective/flash flood threat from the west.  This
front will translate eastward, reaching the TX/LA border area near
Shreveport in the 04-05Z timeframe.  Flash flooding will be a
distinct possibility through at least that timeframe.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6A_9Czlk4N8uJvMpEAy71KjENzSoGcbjTJuBlDeDK8nVn3CE6d2LzSn7W1JziWcAQYhd=
dXd7ZpUi4kcGG5M4tApX0Mc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...JAN...LCH...LZK...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   33739364 33529223 32669183 31189212 30469375=20
            30079619 30789702 32479634 33559493=20

=3D =3D =3D
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