Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Nov 24 2025 16:10:33

AWUS01 KWNH 241610
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-242208-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1245
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1109 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Areas affected...portions of northeast Texas, northwestern
Louisiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241608Z - 242208Z

Summary...Areas of training/repeating thunderstorms should result
in local 2-4 inch rainfall totals through 22Z/4p Central.  Flash
flooding is possible - especially where these heavy rainfall
totals can occur in sensitive and/or urban areas.

Discussion...A complex convective scenario is ongoing across
portions of Texas and Louisiana this morning.  A mature linear
segment (extending from near Hot Springs, AR south-southwestward
to near Longview, TX) was forward propagating eastward while
producing areas of 0.5-1.0 inch/hr rain rates.  An outflow
boundary from this activity extends westward from Longview to near
Waco, where another well-organized linear complex was moving
eastward and also producing 0.5-1.5 inch/hr rain rates.

Flash flood potential will reside between these two linear
complexes over the next 4-6 hours.  The east-west oriented outflow
will interact favorably with enhanced low-level flow (30+ kt at
850 oriented perpendicular to the boundary), resulting in
repeating rounds of rainfall.  Furthermore, heating along and
south of a synoptic warm front across east Texas (from near Waco
to near Lake Charles) will also aid in destabilizing to support
strengthening convection throughout the discussion area.  The
overall scenario supports areas of 2-4 inch rainfall totals.

Fortunately, hourly FFG thresholds across most of the discussion
area are in the 3+ inch range where the heaviest rainfall is
expected.  These thresholds may not be exceeded on a widespread
basis - although this depends somewhat on specific convective
evolution also.  Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding
are expected - particularly where the greatest rainfall can occur
over low-lying and/or urban areas.=20=20

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9fUSUFL2ROiQxVrsYtVsEBgqdyxDf-bIOIvk-ma4iocAmW5lq1cRQobaTs_JYoM_o2p3=
fcRDhqLMp_0tY5wFKqjPZb4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LCH...LZK...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON   33439408 33429237 32409221 31929238 31359297=20
            31079432 30539631 30799728 31949726 32589596=20
            32979514=20

=3D =3D =3D
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