Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Nov 24 2025 12:38:24

ACUS01 KWNS 241238
SWODY1
SPC AC 241236

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EAST
TEXAS...LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI....

....SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from mid-afternoon into
the overnight hours from east Texas into central/southern
Mississippi.

....TX/LA/MS...
A large upper trough is moving eastward across the southern Plains
this morning, with an associated 60-70 knot mid level jet expected
to track into AR by evening.  At the surface, a warm front currently
extends from southeast TX to just off the LA coast.  This boundary
will lift northward through the day, with a moist and moderately
unstable air mass spreading inland.  A combination of diurnal
destabilization and the approaching upper trough will lead to
convective intensification by early afternoon over east TX.  These
initial storms will pose a risk of large hail and perhaps some gusty
winds and a tornado or two.

As the activity spreads eastward after dark, rather strong low-level
shear profiles in vicinity of the warm front will maintain a risk of
severe storms through much of the night across central LA and
southern MS.  Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible.

...Hart/Broyles.. 11/24/2025

$$

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