Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Nov 24 2025 10:14:31 AWUS01 KWNH 241014 FFGMPD ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-241515- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1244 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 513 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 Areas affected...central TX into southeastern OK/southwestern AR Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 241012Z - 241515Z Summary...Flash flooding is likely to continue for portions of central TX into southeastern OK/southwestern AR, at least on a localized basis, through the morning commute (through 15Z/9 AM CST). Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2+ inches will remain likely within areas of training and at least isolated/urban flash flooding will be likely in a couple of areas. Discussion...Radar imagery from 10Z showed a SW to NE axis of heavy rain that extended from near San Angelo to Graham, containing MRMS-derived hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches and has had a history of observed 15 minute rates between 0.5 and 1.0 inches. The axis of thunderstorms was located along the leading edge of 30-40 kt of southerly 925-850 mb winds, which veered and weakened to the west, forming a SW to NE axis of convergence that has largely coincided with the line of thunderstorms over central to northern TX since 06Z. With the exception of the far southern edge of the line, the thunderstorms were mostly elevated above a stable layer north of a warm front that draped NW to SE across central TX to the Upper TX Coast. The environment contained ML/MU CAPE values of 500-1500 J/kg and precipitable water values of 1.3 to 1.5 inches per 09Z SPC mesoanalysis data and these values are expected to continue to be in place as the system translates east to northeast. Short term forecasts from the RAP show the low level convergence axis translating eastward through 15Z, oriented parallel to southwesterly mean steering flow, which will continue to support areas of training over the next 3-5 hours. North of the Red River, instability is expected to be weaker (<1000 J/kg) which may limit rainfall intensities, but lift will be augmented by the right-entrance region of a 90-110 kt upper level jet max located on the eastern side of a upper level closed low/trough to the west. Therefore, while not everyone will see 1 to 2 inches of rain in an hour, SW to NE axes of heavy rain will continue to impact portions of central TX into southeastern OK/southwestern AR through 9 A.M. local time, which will could impact the morning rush, especially if overlap of high rain rates occurs with urban locations, such as the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex within the next 1 to 3 hours. Additional rainfall for many should be 1 to 2 inches but peak values through 15Z of 2 to 3 inches will likely occur. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4ZFTNzgVNwIfsPso7FHQYtRooV-OEmC5q63V7fbKprZpyFzny24Osy-GunOLEUcodKte= o_H4CPuu11FoxTF_I1Qa12E$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA... ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 35019440 34799388 34309345 33309398 32169588=20 31299741 30899864 30829950 31350015 32169926=20 33519754 34869529=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .