Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2221
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Nov 24 2025 06:44:21

ACUS11 KWNS 240644
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240643=20
TXZ000-240915-

Mesoscale Discussion 2221
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Areas affected...West-central and Southwest Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 240643Z - 240915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated large hail threat may continue into the
overnight period across parts of west-central and southwest Texas.
Weather watch issuance will be possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows several small
thunderstorm clusters extending from north-central Texas
southwestward toward the Big Bend. The strongest thunderstorms are
located along a surface trough in southwest Texas along an axis of
moisture and instability. Within this airmass, the RAP shows MLCAPE
in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. Storm coverage is expected to
continue as low-level flow and large-scale ascent both gradually
increase. The latest WSR-88D VWP at San Angelo has 0-6 km shear near
55 knots with some directional shear in the low to mid-levels. This
environment may support rotation within the strongest storms, and
isolated supercells with large hail will be possible. RAP forecast
soundings at San Angelo have poor mid-level lapse rates suggesting
any hail threat should be marginal overnight.

...Broyles/Hart.. 11/24/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-L7RzTpn_Dav39-6NnT8-A803PxjNWHASb8jv4Vhmr82BmUhk5FPt6jUhgVFRWxwdXIwAk6fr=
Uc7kOswAqYkAu6tLqM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   32100067 31330170 30840225 30410219 30320181 30310060
            30579960 30939896 31539840 31919822 32249828 32409848
            32559912 32499978 32100067=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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