Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Nov 24 2025 05:52:55 AWUS01 KWNH 240552 FFGMPD TXZ000-241015- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1243 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1251 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 Areas affected...lower Pecos Valley into north-central TX Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 240550Z - 241015Z Summary...An axis of SW to NE thunderstorms is expected to train, likely resulting in areas of flash flooding from the lower Pecos Valley into portions of north-central TX through 10Z. Hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches should be common, but isolated hourly totals in excess of 2 inches cannot be ruled out. Discussion...Regional radar imagery at 0530Z across TX showed the recent development of thunderstorms across the lower Pecos River Valley from SW to NE, crossing I-10 a couple of miles west of where US-190 meets I-10. Additional thunderstorms extended northeastward across I-20 between Abilene and Ranger. MLCAPE was 500 to 1500+ J/kg via 05Z SPC mesoanalysis data though most of the region was capped. The eastward motion of a mid to upper level closed low/trough to the west has allowed sufficient lift to overcome a capping inversion noted on the 00Z DRT sounding, although the capping inversion is likely weaker to the north of DRT. The storms were located out ahead of a weak Pacific cold front analyzed over western TX at 05Z, along an axis of convergence represented the leading edge of low level moisture transport marked by 30-40 kt of flow per area VAD wind data in the 925-850 mb layer. Some right-entrance region ascent is also likely present south of a 100 kt jet max located on the eastern side of the closed low/trough. Lift ahead of the eastward moving closed low/trough will continue to support the expansion of numerous thunderstorms over portions of west-central to north-central TX through 09Z. Thunderstorm alignment is expected from SW to NE, along the similarly oriented low level convergence axis, with mean steering flow paralleling the axis of convergence, supportive of training. Slow overall movement is especially likely where the leading edge of low level transport meets the approaching zone of lift from the west, closer to the Rio Grande, where eastward movement of the axis of forcing is expected to be slowest. However, coverage of thunderstorms with southward extent is a bit uncertain. The environment supports hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches but isolated hourly totals over 2 inches should be attainable where thunderstorm axes are slower to translate east. Areas of flash flooding are likely to result, although coverage may be somewhat limited across the MPD threat area through 10Z. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!--J0Cgwx68s_3fUkCaer5oFLIJNr1rjgaRVVx80_87jephrSQ-YTTO7MFCqPzFly5cC0= qx9_h9ZLW7rl1Rkm4ORZB5U$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...OUN...SJT... ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 33599849 33179739 32419736 31389870 30340081=20 30000244 30570297 31730151=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .