Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Nov 24 2025 00:59:19

ACUS01 KWNS 240059
SWODY1
SPC AC 240057

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Valid 240100Z - 241200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS...

....SUMMARY...
A few severe storms capable of producing hail and locally strong
gusts remains possible tonight over parts of west to west-central
Texas.

....Discussion...
Gradual cooling aloft will occur tonight as the upper trough moves
into the central and southern Plains, with 50-60 kt midlevel
southwesterlies maintaining deep-layer shear. At the surface, an
instability axis currently exists over southwest TX, where
temperatures are in the 60s with low 60s F dewpoints. While the 00Z
DRT sounding was capped, the MAF soundings shows significantly
cooler 700 mb temperatures. A few storms are ongoing over the South
Plains and into the Pecos Valley, with new echoes developing south
of FST. Given southeasterly 925 mb winds and continued cooling
aloft, additional development and possibly strengthening is expected
overnight.

Long hodographs will favor cells producing hail, and a few strong
wind gusts may also occur if bowing structures can develop. Overall,
instability will be mainly elevated, except over far southern areas.

...Jewell.. 11/24/2025

$$

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