Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Nov 23 2025 23:55:23 AWUS01 KWNH 232355 FFGMPD TXZ000-240552- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1242 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 653 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025 Areas affected...Edwards Plateau/Concho Valley in TX Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 232352Z - 240552Z Summary...A band of thunderstorms is trying to consolidate and is expected to continue to slowly lengthen with time. Hourly rain amounts to 2" with local totals to 4" are possible through 06z. Discussion...A broken band of thunderstorms stretches from near Fort Stockton northeast towards Big Spring TX within the tail end of the warm conveyor belt of a deep layer low centered in the vicinity of southeast CO. Precipitable water values are up to 0.9-1.2" per recent GPS data. MU/ML CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg exists in the vicinity of the band's tail, with the 6C 700 hPa isotherm appearing to act as its southern limit. Effective bulk shear is significant, 50-70 kts, which has led to mesocyclone formation.=20 Right-moving cells appear to be causing some eastward shift with time. Occasional backbuilding to near/slightly south of I-10 has been noted at times. RAP guidance shows an uptick in moisture and low-level inflow from the Gulf and existing convection over the next several hours, which should act to solidify and lengthen the band somewhat, aid precipitation efficiency, and causing the polar warm front to slow its northeast advance from the Pecos River valley. Mesocyclones along the existing, solidifying band are expected to cause cell training as they hold up portions of the convective band to the east-northeast, which could lead to hourly amounts to 2" and local totals to 4" as cells move just right of the mean 850-400 hPa flow in a general east-northeast direction. The combination of a broadening cold pool and slowly veering 850 hPa flow associated with an impinging front/pseudo dryline leads to increased forward progression of the band to the east to east-southeast. Portions of this region saw heavy rainfall Wednesday and Thursday, which has lowered 3 hourly flash flood guidance values to 2-3", which should be achievable in isolated to widely scattered spots. The 12z REFS and 18z HREF were advised for the area outlined. Flash flooding is considered possible through 06z/midnight CST. Roth ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_zyP1sIM09MCIGlmT6X-1_ya4hUXy4M0OqKMFtaUfk4iqjVZGnYfxlcUIV9mjo_rBgr8= 7uVzWLSO13ttNTijlx2EvK4$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...MAF...SJT... ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC... LAT...LON 32390111 32270029 31450004 30250073 30050201=20 30210274 30770303 31560210=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .