Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Nov 23 2025 12:54:45

ACUS01 KWNS 231254
SWODY1
SPC AC 231253

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF WEST TX....

....SUMMARY...
A few severe storms capable of large hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening across parts of west Texas.

....West TX...
A large upper low currently over AZ will track northeastward into
NM, with a 70+ knot mid-level speed max approaching west TX by this
afternoon.  Ahead of this feature, southerly low-level winds will
help transport 50s dewpoints into much of west TX ahead of a diffuse
dryline.  Most CAM solutions suggest that scattered thunderstorms
will form along this dryline and track northeastward for a few
hours.  Given the strength of deep-layer shear, supercell structures
will be likely with a risk of a large hail and perhaps a tornado.
Storms should weaken by late evening as they move into a
progressively less unstable air mass and diurnal cooling ensues.

...Hart/Broyles.. 11/23/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.