Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Nov 22 2025 23:07:38 AWUS01 KWNH 222307 FFGMPD AZZ000-230459- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1241 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 607 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025 Areas affected...portions of central and southeast AZ Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 222259Z - 230459Z SUMMARY...Repeating and brief training of cells could result in localized flash flooding across far eastern KY into WV and far southern OH over the next few hours. Additional rainfall of 1-2 inches will be possible through 01Z, falling atop 1-2 inches of rain which fell over the past 12 hours. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery and cooling cloud tops on GOES East infrared imagery has shown an increase in rainfall intensity across eastern KY over the past 2 hours, attributed to increasing instability. Mostly clear skies located south of an outflow boundary (located from south of SME, east-northeastward into south-central WV between CRW and BKW) have allowed MLCAPE to increase into the 500 to 1000+ J/kg range over southeastern KY as roughly 30 kt of southwesterly 850 mb flow overruns the boundary. Average cell motions have been fast with ~40 kt from the WSW, limiting rainfall over any given location, but that rainfall has been intense with 0.3 to 0.5 inches in 15 minutes observed. A flash flood concern may expand eastward into WV through the early evening as instability increases into the southern half of WV, through the continued advection of low level moisture and at least brief additional heating under clearing skies in southern WV. Some backing of low level flow is forecast by the RAP and as moist/unstable air continues to overrun the rain-cooled boundary, additional storms are expected to form upstream in KY and advance downstream into WV. There will likely be some repeating cells and perhaps some brief training although uncertainty remains on the degree of training into the evening. Given 1 to 2 inches of rain which impacted western and central WV over the past 12 hours, an inch or two of additional rainfall through 01Z may result in some localized flash flooding atop sensitive grounds. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7t0SwD1cDQnVIZMQFVCK0VNmTmtrm9FjFvl4QTMcv2akeLdM5pIq9MnzgXiYy9DDoUdR= 8TJcSa0aciWXjO4Mxbq4g9k$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC... ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC... LAT...LON 34911210 34811085 33170939 31640956 31201086=20 32061186 34001212=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .