Posts by icanbob@techhub.social
(DIR) Post #AtA0smFwIRbe2dZg36 by icanbob@techhub.social
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The cost of renewable collector systems such as wind turbines and solar PV panels continues to decline. This has often been used as a reason why policy should favour more build out. Allow me to explore this question using Ontario’s wind data.https://energyasicit.ca/WindModel/
(DIR) Post #AtA0snTRli0Nootyk4 by icanbob@techhub.social
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I believe that renewables need to be compared to other power sources on an equal 24/7 supply basis. I created this spreadsheet model for Ontario and published the results below.This 24/7 model is in the public domain. I am looking for volunteers to apply this model to UK, Germany, Netherlands,Australia and any other renewable jurisdiction. If you are interested contact me on my Mastodon account.https://energyasicit.ca/WindModel/
(DIR) Post #AtA0so03oS5pRyA1Zo by icanbob@techhub.social
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My home is entirely electrified; ground sourced heat pump, well water, all electric appliances. My grid connected power meter collects data on kWh usage hourly. I have friend 5 km away in a similar rural setting that has 16kW solarPV installed. His data shows 1000kWh/yr/kW which is enough to supply my home annually. By combining the two hourly kWh datasets I can answer the question “how much seasonal storage would be required to run my home on PV power?”
(DIR) Post #AtA0soY5lvJb9W5Cca by icanbob@techhub.social
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@icanbob/111534501325422430 Here is the latest solar data up to 2024Mar01 in graphical form. We now need 4.3MWh of seasonal storage in tank on Nov 1 to get us through the winter. GSHP load is dropping as weather warms. SolarPV output is picking up as the days grow sunnier and longer. Graph also shows what seasonal storage would be required if the solar array was doubled in size./2
(DIR) Post #AtA0spFh9oC3KkU1aK by icanbob@techhub.social
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Same exploration for Ontario’s grid connected solar PV farms yields. 438MW nameplate. 77MW hourly avg since 2024Jan1. 0.3TWh. If one wants 50MW 24/7 would need 25GWh for seasonal storage. Surplus only begins at beginning of Apr and is consistent from May1.#solarPV
(DIR) Post #AtA0sqFNSTX8Q3LHjE by icanbob@techhub.social
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@icanbob/111534501325422430 Many have encouraged me to publish this experimental dataset. The draft of that effort is now online on my webhosting page. I’ve added an hourly wind dataset to the hourly home electricity and solarPV datasets and they are published also.http://energyasicit.ca/solarPVpaper2//3
(DIR) Post #AtA0sqJHDyeWc9AOo4 by icanbob@techhub.social
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Results so far. Dataset started 2023Nov01. To bring my home through those 6 weeks we would need 600kWh of seasonal storage in the vault on Nov1. During those 6 weeks there have been 5 days where there hasn’t been a single hour with a PV surplus to send to storage.Stay tuned for more results into the spring.
(DIR) Post #AtA0srW4jsU6M8A8OW by icanbob@techhub.social
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Week of Mar16-22 was not very sunny and weather turned decidedly colder in my part of Ontario. Net result is my seasonal storage went up by 100kWh to 4.46MWh. Shows as the dip at tail of graph below. Days are getting warmer and longer, so should be turning up soon./4
(DIR) Post #AtA0srvbCytvdI6WB6 by icanbob@techhub.social
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I have brought my dataset up to 2023Dec15. It has been a warm winter without much sun in my part of Ontario so far in Dec. To bring my home through from Nov1 we would require 950kWh in storage in vault on Nov1. Interestingly Dec 15 was a very warm (12C) and sunny day. Despite this, the 16kW PV output could not entirely match home GSHP load that day even with the significant passive solar heating from my southern window exposure./4
(DIR) Post #AtA0ssuvWxxQhUnUlk by icanbob@techhub.social
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The last week of Mar has been somewhat sunny, but nights are still -5C. The GSHP load is still high which overwhelms the surplus sunny days still.
(DIR) Post #AtA0stJk2ho5wSPJRo by icanbob@techhub.social
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I’ve brought my dataset up to 2023Dec25. The past 10 days have been horrible for PV production. All the while outside temps, while warm for these parts, have hovered around 5C during day. My GSHP still needs to consume power to heat my home. To bring my home through from Nov1 now requires 1400kWh of seasonal storage to be in place Nov1. There now have been 13 days with no surplus PV at any point in the day. 1400kWh=$1400000 in Tesla Powerwalls./5
(DIR) Post #AtA0suHeRxjGwGR9pQ by icanbob@techhub.social
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Weather is still cold enough for GSHP load to overwhelm solarPV output. Long range weather forecast has a turn around coming up with the expectation of a seasonal storage build beginning to show in dataset. Historically the GSHP is not required into May./8#solarPV
(DIR) Post #AtA0supKQkfSciC3Jw by icanbob@techhub.social
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I’ve brought dataset up to 2024Jan4. PV production continues to be horrible in my part of Ontario. To bring my GSHP heated home from 2023Nov1 now requires 1900kWh of storage be in the vault on Nov1. There have now been 21 days since Nov1 with no surplus PV at any point in the day. Jan 4 was actually a very sunny day but since my neighbour’s PV panels are covered by a thin layer of snow and the outside temp maxed at -5C, Jan 4 was one of the 21 days with no surplus./6
(DIR) Post #AtA0svk31s2PScjLjE by icanbob@techhub.social
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Latest graph reflects the warmer weather and longer daylight days. We are starting to see the seasonal surplus building out from the spring bottom./9
(DIR) Post #AtA0sw9vTejoksq144 by icanbob@techhub.social
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Dataset is up to 2024Jan15. PV production continues to be horrible due to lack of sun and snow/ice cover on panels. The weather has turned colder (-10C daytime high). This has boosted my GSHP load substantially. The combination now means that I would need 2.6MWh of seasonal storage in the vault on Nov1. There have now been 32 days with no PV surplus at any point in the day. At Tesla Powerwall prices this storage would cost $2.6M for my one home./7
(DIR) Post #AtA0sx8BrawZln28zw by icanbob@techhub.social
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Wind in Ontario cannot support a GSHP without an impractical amount of seasonal storage. The description of this dataset and the 2 input variables (storage amount on Nov 1; scaling factor to convert aggregate Ontario wind stats into single home dataset) is contained in the online report herehttps://energyasicit.ca/solarPVpaper2/1000k homes scaling factor is closest to annual wind GWh in Ontario / annual MWh for my GSHP home/10
(DIR) Post #AtA0sxJtA6IkM4VUES by icanbob@techhub.social
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Dataset is now up to 2024Jan27. PV production continues to struggle but cold weather has moderated. We now need 3.5MWh of seasonal storage in vault on Nov1 to get my home through. There have been 42 days with zero PV surplus at any point in day. 3.5MWh=150kgH2 run back through fuel cell=269Tesla Powerwalls=51olympic swimming pools of water pumped to height of my roof./8
(DIR) Post #AtA0syi1zpCufEoHVA by icanbob@techhub.social
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It’s a wrap. The GSHP heating season is done. According to dataset the required seasonal storage on 2023Nov1 was 4550kWh. The amount of accumulated seasonal storage build back on 2024May1 was 882kWh. Is solarPV capable of supporting a GSHP is Ontario? Short answer is NO. Not without impractical/uneconomical amounts of seasonal storage./11
(DIR) Post #AtA0syuRFh8FHicBqC by icanbob@techhub.social
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Dataset is up to 2024Feb3. Feb3 was the first day since early Nov that the PV output exceeded my GSHP load over 24 hrs. Ie. More was added to storage than taken out. We now need 3.7MWh of seasonal storage and there have been 45 days with zero PV surplus at any point in day. 3.7MWh=160kgH2=285 Tesla Powerwalls=54 Olympic pools of water up 10m. We may have turned the seasonal corner because days are getting longer (=more PV on sunny days) and weather is warming (=less GSHP)./9
(DIR) Post #AtA0sywZ7mpjOJbt9k by icanbob@techhub.social
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What if my GSHP was powered by an in home fuel cell. My house uses ~70kWh/day to drive my heat pump. Assuming COP of 3 my house needs ~210kWh/day of 20C heated air. A fuel cell is about 60% efficient. The 40% is rejected as heat above 20C. So fuel cell produces 0.67kWh heat per kWh electric. Daily heat = ( kWh e * 3) + (kWh e * 0.67)=kWh e * 3.67KWh e (fuel cell) = 210/3.67 = 57kWh with in home fuel cell vs 70 kWh or 82% of electrons from fuel cell for same GSHP heat.