TRADE NEWS BULLETIN Volume 2 Number 205 Monday, November 15, 1993 Headlines: SHORT OF VOTES, CLINTON OFFERS PROTECTIONS TO REPUBLICANS NAFTA SUPPORTERS SAY DEFEAT WOULD HURT U.S., CLINTON ANALYSTS: ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION WOULD INCREASE UNDER NAFTA "CRUNCH WEEK" FOR URUGUAY ROUND ________________________________________________________ NAFTA News Summary ________________________________________________________ SHORT OF VOTES, CLINTON OFFERS PROTECTIONS TO REPUBLICANS President Clinton said Saturday he would publicly defend Republicans who come under attack in next year's re-election campaigns because of their pro-NAFTA votes. The NEW YORK TIMES reported that Clinton proposed putting in writing a "promise to assail any Democratic challenger who ran against a Republican incumbent because of a pro-NAFTA vote." House Minority Whip Newt Gingrich has predicted 110 Republicans will vote for NAFTA, short of the 120 Republicans the White House thinks it needs. In an appearance on NBC's "Meet the Press" program, U.S. Trade Representative Mickey Kantor said the administration was about 12 votes short of the 218 needed to pass NAFTA. "We have enough votes right now to put us in striking distance," Kantor said. "Neither (side) has 218 right now, but by Wednesday we will have them," he said. On the same program, Democratic Whip David Bonior claimed to have 222 votes against the trade pact. An ASSOCIATED PRESS survey of the House found 203 representatives opposed to NAFTA, compared to 108 in favor and 51 undecided. Sources: Susan Cornwell, "Clinton Says He'll Help Republican NAFTA Backers," REUTER, November 13, 1993; Jeffrey H. Birnbaum, "White House Says NAFTA Approval Is Near," WALL STREET JOURNAL, November 15, 1993; Jim Abrams, "NAFTA Debate," AP, November 14, 1993. ________________________________________________________ NAFTA SUPPORTERS SAY DEFEAT WOULD HURT U.S., CLINTON Supporters are warning of the consequences to the U.S. and Bill Clinton if NAFTA is rejected by Congress. Canadian business leaders warned that their country would quickly implement a bilateral deal with Mexico. Thomas d'Aquino, president of the 150-member Canadian Business Council on National Issues, said Canadian businesses want the U.S. to approve NAFTA "but we are not going to sit around twiddling our thumbs" if it is defeated. He said U.S. rejection of NAFTA would make Canada more attractive to businesses wanting to open plants and invest money. Vice President Gore said a NAFTA defeat on Wednesday would make Clinton look weak at the Asian-Pacific trade summit taking place later this week in Seattle. Clinton had called the summit in hopes of launching an Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation group, which would eventually become a Pacific-based economic community. Gore said a NAFTA rejection would be "really catastrophic" and "would be a terrible thing to do to the president, to do to the country." The WALL STREET JOURNAL argues: "If President Clinton goes to Seattle with a NAFTA victory under his belt, he will be in a strong position to further his vision of an Asian economic community in which the U.S. plays a central role. If he loses NAFTA, the other Asian nations will see little reason to follow Mr. Clinton's vision." Treasury Secretary Lloyd Bentsen warned that a rejection of NAFTA could hurt U.S.-Mexican relations. "I recall, time and time again, listening to Mexican presidents in the past ... railing against the United States," Bentsen said. "I don't want to see us returning to the bad old times of the relationship between Mexico and the United States." Sources: Jim Abrams, "NAFTA Debate," AP, November 14, 1993; David Sanger, "Clinton's Goals for Pacific Trade Are Seen as a Hard Sell at Summit," NEW YORK TIMES, November 14, 1993; Alexander Nicoll, George Graham, "Hands Across the Water," FINANCIAL TIMES, November 15, 1993; Alan Murray, "NAFTA Vote Is Crucial to Asian Talks Success," WALL STREET JOURNAL, November 15, 1993; Anthony Boadle, "Canada to Reap Mexican Bonanza If NAFTA Rejected," REUTER, November 13, 1993; "Bentsen Warns of Mexican Anti- Americanism If NAFTA Fails," UPI, November 14, 1993. ________________________________________________________ ANALYSTS: ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION WOULD INCREASE UNDER NAFTA Many immigration experts say NAFTA will, in the short term, increase the number of Mexicans entering the United States in search of economic opportunity. Mexico's agriculture industry will be hit hard by the elimination of tariffs in NAFTA. "This is one industry (where employment) is going to be drastically reduced," said economist Nelson Pedrozo of the University of California Economic Forecast group. "So it has the potential of actually increasing the immigration." Mexico's service sector and small industries could also suffer large job losses, said University of Texas immigration specialist Rodolfo de la Garza. NAFTA supporters have long argued that the trade pact would reduce migration from Mexico. Last week, U.S. Attorney General Janet Reno told reporters that NAFTA was the only way to curb illegal immigration. "If we don't get NAFTA, I think it is only going to get worse," she said. Most studies predict it will take between seven and 20 years after NAFTA for Mexican emigration to decrease. Source: Peter Cooney, "NAFTA Seen as No Quick Cure to Illegal Immigration," REUTER, Nov. 13, 1993. ________________________________________________________ GATT News Summary ________________________________________________________ "CRUNCH WEEK" FOR URUGUAY ROUND GATT diplomats are saying the next few days, dubbed "crunch week" by some, could decide whether differences are resolved and the Uruguay Round can be completed by the December 15 deadline. So far there is no indication of a breakthrough. On Tuesday, European Community farm ministers will stress the need to clarify an EC-U.S. farm subsidies deal, but the U.S. continues to reject additional talks. The EC is also urging Japan to help push for a completion of talks. "With goodwill and a few substantial initiatives, Japan can use its economic weight to help lead the world to a successful conclusion of the Uruguay Round," said EC Trade Commissioner Leon Brittan. In Japan for talks with Prime Minister Morihiro Hosokawa, Brittan said Japan must lift its ban on rice imports to obtain an overall GATT accord. Meanwhile, citizens' groups from around the globe will gather in Geneva December 4 to hold demonstrations calling for a moratorium on the Uruguay Round negotiations. The groups are calling for a "wide-ranging democratic debate before any decision is taken on the contents of a new international trade agreement." Ladbrokes, the London betting company, is offering odds of 5 to 1 against GATT passing by the December 15 deadline. Sources: Robert Evans, "GATT Faces 'Crunch Week' in Bid for Trade Treaty," REUTER, November 14, 1993; Peter Blackburn, "EC Farm Ministers to Stress Need to Clarify U.S. Farm Deal," REUTER, November 14, 1993; Abi Sekimitsu, "EC Urges Japan to Use Weight to Win GATT Accord," REUTER, November 14, 1993; Carla Rapoport, "Photo Finish for GATT," BUSINESS WEEK, November 29, 1993. ________________________________________________________ Editor: Kai Mander The Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy (IATP) 1313 Fifth Street SE, Suite #303 Minneapolis, MN 55414-1546 USA Telephone:(612)379-5980 Fax:(612)379-5982 E-Mail:kmander@igc.apc.org ________________________________________________________