Trade Week in Review and Recent Publications November 6-12, 1993 Volume 2 Number 204 Headlines: Public Opinion Polls Differ Following NAFTA Debate Clinton Still Short NAFTA Votes Clinton Offering Deals Lobbying Efforts Heating Up Japanese Farmers Protest to Keep Rice Ban French Farmers Remain Opposed to GATT U.S. Farm Groups Also Demand Changes ___________________________________________________________ NAFTA News Summary ___________________________________________________________ -Public Opinion Polls Differ Following NAFTA Debate- Public opinion polls differed on the impact of the debate between Vice President Al Gore and Texas billionaire Ross Perot. According to an ABC Nightline poll taken after the debate, 38 percent of those polled approved of NAFTA and 46 percent opposed it. The figures were not much different from a poll taken on Tuesday, the day of the debate. However, a USA TODAY/CNN poll found support for the trade pact rocketed from 34 percent before the debate to 57 percent after. -Clinton Still Short NAFTA Votes- House Democratic Whip David Bonior said Thursday that anti-NAFTA forces have enough votes to defeat NAFTA. "We have 221 votes," Bonior said. "We gotta hold 'em and pick up eight or nine more as a cushion." President Clinton and Republican Whip Newt Gingrich each predicted that NAFTA would pass. "My personal feeling is that NAFTA will pass by three to five votes, and we'll get about eight of those votes the morning of the vote," Gingrich said. -Clinton Offering Deals- President Bill Clinton has been active in offering deals to members of Congress in exchange for their "yes" votes on NAFTA. Clinton has established special protections for citrus growers, sugar beet processors and grain growers in hopes of gaining support from the 23-member Florida delegation. Clinton has also made so many offers in other areas that columnist George Will wrote in the WASHINGTON POST: "Votes are for sale and the President is buying." Here is a partial list of deals: % Freshman Democrat Eddie Bernice Johnson of Texas traded her NAFTA vote for an administration commitment to build six C-17 military transport planes, two more than were originally planned. The C-17 has a history of technical failures which have caused its cargo doors to open unexpectedly in midflight and its wings to buckle in flight testing. The two new planes will cost taxpayers between $700 million and $1.4 billion. % The Clinton administration announced the creation of the $225 million North American Development Bank. Following the announcement, Representative Esteban Torres (D-California) announced he would support NAFTA. The House Banking Committee reported unfavorably on the proposal. % Clinton included $10 million in NAFTA implementing legislation for a Center for the Study of Trade in the Western Hemisphere. The Center will be built in the Austin, Texas district of Democratic Representative J.J. Pickle. % The White House delayed the announcement of a package of federal range land reforms after 10 House Republicans said the reforms were forcing them to "reconsider" their support for NAFTA. % Transportation Secretary Federico Pena traveled to Houston this week to promise Representative Gene Green (D-Texas) help in building a $10 million bridge that would span an East Houston railyard. "They've offered me a bridge and I don't even have any water in my district," Green said. Lawmakers from tobacco-producing states asked the Clinton administration to reduce the proposed federal cigarette tax increase in exchange for their NAFTA votes, but the administration appears to have rejected the idea. Other rumored deals are said to involve an aircraft carrier for Virginia, concessions to flat glass makers, a waiver on cleaning up the Boston Harbor, ambassadorships, judicial appointments, urban jobs pilot program, broomcorn producers and research centers. -Lobbying Efforts Heating Up- The pro-NAFTA business community has organized an all-out blitz of phone calls, mailings, advertisements and speeches on behalf of NAFTA. Workers are even being pulled off assembly lines to speak to members of Congress, according to the NEW YORK TIMES. "I think we've done more on NAFTA than any legislative issue in history," said Lawrence A. Bossidy, head of USA-NAFTA, a pro-NAFTA business coalition. But anti-NAFTA groups are also continuing their battle against the trade pact. The Citizens' Trade Campaign is bringing "NAFTA Claus" to the Capitol to distribute gifts in parody of Clinton's efforts to sell NAFTA to a skeptical Congress. Sources: "U.S. Public Opinion Still Opposes NAFTA - ABC Poll," REUTER, November 12, 1993; "Anti-NAFTA Leader Says Clinton 60 Votes Short," UPI, November 11, 1993; Ann Devroy, Dan Balz, "GOP May Not Have Votes for NAFTA," WASHINGTON POST, November 12, 1993; Karen Ball, "NAFTA-Horsetrading," AP, November 12, 1993; John Maggs, "Planes-for-Vote Swap Illustrates Rising NAFTA Price Tag," JOURNAL OF COMMERCE, November 6, 1993; Timothy Noar, Jackie Calmes, "White House Is Negotiating Changes in Grazing-Fee Plan to Win NAFTA Votes," WALL STREET JOURNAL, November 10, 1993; HOUSTON POST, November 12, 1993; WASHINGTON TIMES, November 11, 1993; "Torres Links NAFTA With Bank Proposal," CONGRESS DAILY, October 15, 1993; Nancy Dunne, "US Public Opinion Swings Behind NAFTA," FINANCIAL TIMES, November 12, 1993; Joshua Mills, "Business Lobbying for Trade Pact Appears to Sway Few in Congress," NEW YORK TIMES, November 12, 1993. ___________________________________________________________ GATT News Summary ___________________________________________________________ -Japanese Farmers Protest to Keep Rice Ban- Japanese farmers staged a massive protest in Japan on Wednesday in an effort to keep the government from giving in to pressure from GATT members and lifting its rice ban. "Absolutely NO to an open rice market" and "The government and parliament must stick to their promises" read banners. Yoshiharu Satoh, president of the Central Union of Agricultural Cooperatives, told a crowd of 10,000 farmers that replacing the ban with tariffs would "not only impose irrevocable damage on domestic farming, it will upset the stable livelihood of all Japanese people in the long run." The rally was sparked by a government advisory panel report recommending that the government lift the ban. -French Farmers Remain Opposed to GATT- Meanwhile, French farm leaders on Tuesday criticized the country's political leaders from making false promises to resist the EC-U.S. Blair House deal. Philippe Mangin, a former president of the CNJA farm union, said 80 percent of politicians who had threatened to veto the Blair House accord had little idea of what it involved. EC foreign ministers expressed solidarity with France's objections to GATT and said an accord would need the approval of all EC members, including France. On Monday, former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher said the EC should be prepared to complete the Uruguay Round without France. -U.S. Farm Groups Also Demand Changes- In a letter to U.S. Trade Representative Mickey Kantor, U.S. family farm, commodity and rural organizations expressed concern about GATT agriculture provisions, especially those contained in the Blair House agreement. The groups say current proposals would fail to control export dumping, lower domestic sanitary and health provisions and fail to balance supply management costs of the world's food reserves. Sources: Yoko Kobayashi, "Japan Farmers Make Desperate Call to Keep Rice Ban," REUTER, November 10, 1993; "Farmers Attack French Politicians for GATT Utopia," REUTER, November 10, 1993. ___________________________________________________________ Recent Publications on International Trade ___________________________________________________________ For copies of the following, please contact the authors or organizations listed. "The Environmental Implications of the NAFTA Environmental Side Agreement," Zen Makuch and Scott Sinclair, CANADIAN ENVIRONMENTAL LAW ASSOCIATION, October 1993. 53 pages. 517 College St., Suite 401, Toronto, Ontario M6G 4A2, Canada. (416) 960- 2284. Fax: (416) 960-9392. $10. "An Analysis of EPA's Progress on the Integrated Border Environmental Plan's Hazardous Waste Commitments," TEXAS CENTER FOR POLICY STUDIES, November 3, 1993. 19 pages. Adriana Solis, P.O. Box 2618, Austin, TX 78768. (512) 474-0811. Free. "NAFTA's Corporate Cadre - Part II," Sarah Anderson and John Cavanagh, INSTITUTE FOR POLICY STUDIES, November 4, 1993. 6 pages. 1601 Connecticut Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20009. (202) 234- 9382. "NAFTA's Implementation Costs: A Surprising New Tax for the American Public," CITIZENS TRADE CAMPAIGN, November 3, 1993. 20 pages. 600 Maryland Ave., SW, Washington, DC 20024. (202) 554- 1102. Free. "Down the NAFTA Drain: Illinois Jobs and Great Lakes Water," Marion Anderson and David Dempsey, EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH ASSOCIATES AND CLEAN WATER FUND, October 1993. 14 pages. 968 Roxburgh Ave., E. Lansing, MI 48823. (517) 485-7655. $5. Similar studies are available for Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. "How About A Fair Trade Agreement?" David Morris, UTNE READER, July/August 1993. 3 pages. 1624 Harmon Pl., Minneapolis, MN 55403. (612) 338-5040. $4. "The New Supremacy of Trade: NAFTA Rewrites the Status of States," Robert Stumberg, CENTER FOR POLICY ALTERNATIVES, October 1993. 9 pages. 1875 Connecticut Ave., NW, Suite 710, Washington, DC 20009. (202) 387-6030. Fax: (202) 986-2539. $5. "State of the U.S.-Mexico Border Environment," UDALL CENTER FOR STUDIES IN PUBLIC POLICY, September 1993. 12 pages. University of Arizona, 803/811 E. First St., Tucson, AZ 85719. (602) 621-7189. Fax: (602) 621-9234. Free. "NAFTA Thoughts: A Newsletter on the North American Free Trade Agreement," DEVELOPMENT GAP, October 1993. 9 pages. 927 Fifteenth St., NW, 4th Floor, Washington, DC 20005. (202) 898-1566. Fax: (202) 898-1612. E-mail: dgap@igc.apc.org. "NAFTA and Water Exports," CANADIAN ENVIRONMENTAL LAW ASSOCIATION, October 1993. 134 pages. 517 College St., Suite 401, Toronto, Ontario M6G 4A2, Canada. (416) 960-2284. Fax: (416) 960- 9392. $10. ___________________________________________________________ Editors: Gigi DiGiacomo, Kai Mander and Chirag Mehta The Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy (IATP) 1313 Fifth Street SE, Suite #303, Minneapolis, MN 55414-1546 USA Telephone:(612)379-5980 Fax:(612)379-5982 E-Mail:kmander@igc.apc.org ___________________________________________________________