In this issue: * NEW FIGHTING IN MOGADISHU * TRADE BOOM IN HARGEISA ____________________________________________________________________ S O M A L I A N E W S U P D A T E ____________________________________________________________________ Vol 3, No 18 June 26, 1994. ISSN 1103-1999 ____________________________________________________________________ Somalia News Update is published irregularly via electronic mail and fax. Questions can be directed to Bernhard.Helander@antro.uu.se or to fax number +46-18-151160. All SNU marked material is free to quote as long as the source is clearly stated. ____________________________________________________________________ NEW FIGHTING IN MOGADISHU (SNU, Uppsala, June 26) - Fierce gun and mortar battles has been raging in and around Mogadishu since Thursday when "technicals" containing loyals to the SNA/USC leader Mohamed Farah Aideed were attacked south of the airport. The attackers were members of the pro- Ali Mahdi militia. The estimates of the number of wounded ranges in between 68 (Reuters) and 300 (AP). Reports of the number of killed vary between 6 (news agencies) and 10 (Somali sources). UNOSOM's military spokesman Chris Budge on Saturday morning described the fighting as an internal Somali affair: "At no time has there been any small arms fire directed towards UNOSOM troops or facilities." Budge explained that the Zimbabwean UN soldier who was shot dead on Thursday was the victim of bandits seeking to rob UN personnel. Later on during Saturday's battle UNOSOM spokesman George Bennett, according to a Reuters' telegramme, admitted that the fighting had disrupted routines inside the fortified UNOSOM compound. Staff had been asked to take shelter and wear flak jackets and helmets after what he called "substantial stray rounds" overshot the compound. COMMENTARY: This latest outburst of fighting in the Somali capital comes after a period of increased tension within and between the Somali militias. The prices on weapons and ammunition in Mogadishu have been on the rise for some time, indicating an increase in demand. UNOSOM reported last week that a peace treaty in the Lower Juba area had been concluded. However, sources in Nairobi describe the treaty as "extremely shaky" since it does not include one of the major elements of the conflict and the single largest population element in the Lower Jubba region, the Ogaden clan. In addition, a source close to one of the parties has told Somalia News Update that the treaty has yet to be formally signed, the current deal is only verbal. Aideed's SNA-militia has been rocked severely by growing dissatisfaction among several of his Habar Gedir clan's sub-branches. The Ayr and Suleyman sub-clans in particular have repeatedly been said to be on the verge of breaking out of the SNA to instead join the opposed camp headed by Ali Mahdi. In addition, the Hawaadle clan two weeks ago issued an ultimatum to Aideed to withdraw his ban on export of metal scrap and other items that are vital in economy of the militias. This ultimatum is said to have been viewed extremely favourably by the dissident wings of the SNA. It is clear that the so-called Somali Salvation Alliance headed by Ali Mahdi sees the current developments as a window of opportunity. A spokesman for Ali Mahdi yesterday declared a "full scale civil war" and in a radio broadcast the Somali people was called on to back the "Somali National Army". Meanwhile, Aideed has been seeking to strengthen his own ranks by incorporating the Somali National Union into the SNA. In the North-eastern regions the SSDF militia began their long- awaited congress in Gardho this week. The 165 official delegates from all around the world are facing a number of crucial decisions, among them the question of leadership. Some observers believe that the congress will remove Mohamed Abshir and instead install Colonel Abduhallahi Yusuf as the leader. Such a development would be favoured by Aideed who is an old friend of Abdullahi Yusuf since they once shared the same cell. Last year Abdullahi Yusuf and Aideed successfully concluded a treaty which brought a noticeable measure of stability to the central region of Mudug. Mohamed Abshir, in turn, is a known supporter of Ali Mahdi's "presidency". In another current congress taking place in Beled Weyn, the Hawaadle clan are believed to have reconsolidated their forces following their victory over the SNA in the Galgaduud region last month. It appears extremely unlikely that UNOSOM will be able to meet the July 29 deadline when the security council expects a new progress report from the Secretary-General. The Nairobi peace talks have been rescheduled indefinitely and the recent developments have shown that even with high-level militia negotiations taking place, the war on the ground will continue. Ambassador Gbeho, the new SRSG, due to arrive in Mogadishu within a week, would be wise to reconsider the nature and scope of the approach to peace adopted by UNOSOM so far. TRADE BOOM IN HARGEISA (DHA, Geneva, June 22) Hargeisa is experiencing a boom in trade with Ethiopia. Most imported goods came though Djibouti port and were trucked to Hargeisa until the Djibouti government closed the road to the Northwest to keep out potential troublemakers. Traders now tranship to Berbera port. Many commercial imports through Berbera are trucked to the Ethiopia market. The Somali shilling is used as far as the Ethiopian regional city of Dire Dawa. Livestock exports are high. Hargeisa's population is returning and the central commercial and market area is as crowded as it was ten years ago. Following the closure of the borders between Djibouti and the Northwest of Somali, there were reports that the port of Berbera is benefiting from increased shipping traffic and that the larger traders are opening offices in town. ************************************************************************ * Advertisement: * * Michael Maren, Africa correspondent for The Village Voice, is writ- * * ing a book on the years leading up to the collapse of Somalia and is * * interested in hearing from people who worked or lived there between * * 1977 and December 1992. He would like to correspond with former aid * * workers, business people, officials of the Barre government, victims * * of the Barre government, opposition activists, and anyone else who * * has first hand experience in Somalia during those years. Contact him * * directly at <71131.3444@CompuServe.COM> or send mail to 425 East * * Ninth Street, #3A, New York, NY 10009, USA. * ************************************************************************ ____________________________________________________________________ SNU is an entirely independent newsletter devoted to critical analysis of the political and humanitarian developments in Somalia and Somaliland. SNU is edited and published by Dr. Bernhard Helander, Uppsala University, Sweden. SNU is produced with support from the Scandinavian Institute of African Studies, Uppsala, Sweden. ____________________________________________________________________