In this issue: * A MOVE TOWARDS PEACE? THE SECOND HUG IN LESS THAN A YEAR... ____________________________________________________________________ S O M A L I A N E W S U P D A T E ____________________________________________________________________ Vol 3, No 9 March 25, 1994. ISSN 1103-1999 ____________________________________________________________________ Somalia News Update is published irregularly via electronic mail and fax. Questions can be directed to Bernhard.Helander@antro.uu.se or to fax number +46-18-151160. All SNU marked material is free to quote as long as the source is clearly stated. ____________________________________________________________________ A MOVE TOWARDS PEACE? THE SECOND HUG IN LESS THAN A YEAR... (SNU, Nairobi/Uppsala, March 25) - After more than a week of almost constant talks in the fashionable settings of Nairobi's best hotels between more than 60 representatives of the Somali factions, and at a cost of more than 150,000 US dollars per day, Thursday evening eventually saw Ali Mahdi Mohammed and Mohammed Farah "Aideed" put their signatures on an agreement that boils down to that they are going to meet again. The actual signing ceremony was delayed due to a disagreement over the protocol. Originally the intention was to obtain the signatures of all the fifteen movements forming part of the Addis Ababa agreement on March 27, 1993. However, two problems emerged last Sunday: 1. Ali Mahdi was not himself a signatory of the Addis agreement. He proclaimed himself "interim president" of Somalia three days after Siyad Barre was overthrown in January 1991 and declared himself "president with executive powers" in July the same year. At the Addis Ababa meeting he had appointed Mohammed Qanyare Afrah, a businessman from the allied Murosadde clan, as the chairman for the USC while Mahdi himself posed as the "president". Since UNOSOM had insisted that only the chairmen of movements that had existed prior to March 31, 1991, could be part of the agreement, Mahdi found -- cornered by his own rhetoric -- that he was not going sign and that his Abgaal clansmen consequently were going to be left out of the agreement. According to a recent book by former UNOSOM employee and Somalia old- timer, John Drysdale, this was the moment when Aideed graciously offered Ali Mahdi a personal seat on the would-be Transitional National Council after which the two militia leaders fell into the arms of one another. In Nairobi, however, Mahdi insisted to sign himself in the capacity of the coordinator of the so-called Somali Salvation Alliance or the Group of Twelve and this would, according to some of the participants, constitute of breach of the continuity from the Addis agreement. Eventually this disagreement appears to have been settled in the private talks held between Aideed and Mahdi. 2. A more serious obstacle was posed by the reshuffle within the alliances of the different militias that has taken place since the Addis Ababa agreement was signed. In Addis the Southern Somali National Movement (SSNM) comprising the various Dir clans in the south signed as part of Aideed's Somali National Alliance (SNA). However, following alleged attacks of Aideed's Habar Gedir clan on the Dir-Biyemaal clan of the Merca area during last summer, the latter withdrew from the SNA and their chairman, Abdi Warsame Isaq, has subsequently joined Ali Mahdi's Group of Twelve. In the last months some southern Dir clan members have reemerged as allies to the SNA under the name of SSNM. The disagreement now was whether - in keeping with the Addis formula - the SSNM would sign as an undivided movement or whether their split would be given "official" recognition and they would sign as two separate movements (as both the SPM, SDM and USC were supposed to). Eventually this second disagreement was resolved. It was decided that only Ali Mahdi and Mohammed Farah Aideed would sign on behalf of the Group of Twelve and the Somalia National Alliance respectively. After the signing ceremony the hugged again... The agreement this time is minimal. The text -- obtained via Reuters' news agency -- contains a large number of unclear points: "Following the informal consultations in Nairobi, Kenya, from 11 to 23 March, 1994, the political leaders of Somalia have reached an understanding based on the following principles: 1.1 Inviolability of the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the Somali people. 1.2 Repudiation of any form of violence as a means of resolving conflicts and implementation of a cease-fire and voluntary disarmament throughout Somalia. 1.3 Respect for and preservation of fundamental human rights and democratic principles. 1.4 Creation of an atmosphere conducive to brotherly co- existence among all Somalis, using traditional channels, cultural and political means. 1.5 Rehabilitation and reconstruction of the country to recover from the devastation of the civil war. 2. In specific terms, the leaders have agreed to implement the following: 2.1 To restore peace throughout Somalia, giving priority wherever conflicts exist. 2.2 To hold a meeting of the signatory factions of the Addis Ababa Peace Agreement and the Somali National Movement on 15 April 1994 in Mogadishu to set up rules and procedures of voting and criteria of participation in a national reconciliation conference. The meeting will also discuss the ways and the modalities to establish the National Legislative assembly, which will be formed after the formation of the national government. 2.3 In order to restore the sovereignty of the Somali state, a national reconciliation conference should be convened on 15 May 1994 to elect a president, vice-presidents (the number to be determined) and appoint a prime minister. 2.4 To complete and review the formation of local authorities, where needed, and to establish them, where necessary, as a basis for regional autonomy and respect for community rights. 2.5 To urge the Somali National Movement to attend the above and all national reconciliation conferences and consultations. 2.6 To establish an independent judiciary". The critical paragraphs are number 2.1, 2.4 and 2.5. It would appear that both Ali Mahdi and Aideed are somewhat over-anxious to approach the "SNM", a movement that to a large extent is defunct following the unilateral agreement among the northern clans to secede from Somalia in May 1991. Paragraph 2.4 refers to the already established district and regional councils that the SNA so far has refused to acknowledge and it is clear that the formulation is intended to allow some leverage over the continuation of these. The process of setting up and support to councils has largely been abandoned since the head of the political section of UNOSOM, Leonard Kapungo, left office a month ago. Another critical issue with this agreement is the fact that it has not been signed by all the movements. It was precisely because Ali Mahdi had not personally signed an earlier agreement (the so- called Djibouti II) that he claimed to be able to assume the full powers of presidency. It is certainly not beyond imagination to conceive of any of those non-signatories to this agreement claiming that the remain unbound by it. The most critical issue, however, is that fact that the very passing of time has meant that the movements themselves have, to some extent at least, begun to become over-shadowed by other types of groups claiming their part of the political arena. The January agreement between the Hiraab-clans of the Hawiye remains the most manifest expression of popular dissatisfaction with the performance of the Hawiye militias. Similarly, the apparent unity among the north-eastern Harti clans appears to have been reached largely without involvement of the SSDF or any of the other militias in the area. ____________________________________________________________________ SNU is an entirely independent newsletter devoted to critical analysis of the political and humanitarian developments in Somalia and Somaliland. SNU is edited and published by Dr. Bernhard Helander, Uppsala University, Sweden. SNU is produced with support from the Scandinavian Institute of African Studies, Uppsala, Sweden. ____________________________________________________________________