In this issue: * ETHIOPIA'S REGION FIVE: HEADING TOWARDS CHAOS? * G12: "WE ARE GOING TO REACH AN AGREEMENT" ____________________________________________________________________ S O M A L I A N E W S U P D A T E ____________________________________________________________________ Vol 3, No 8 March 6, 1994. ISSN 1103-1999 ____________________________________________________________________ Somalia News Update is published irregularly via electronic mail and fax. Questions can be directed to Bernhard.Helander@antro.uu.se or to fax number +46-18-151160. All SNU marked material is free to quote as long as the source is clearly stated. ____________________________________________________________________ ETHIOPIA'S REGION FIVE: HEADING TOWARDS CHAOS? (SNU, Hamburg/Uppsala, March 3) - Tensions appear to be on the increase in Ethiopia's easternmost "Somali" region, the part of Ethiopia that following the transitional national charter set up by the EPRDF is labelled Region Five. Politically the region is dominated by the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) supported by members of the Ogaden clan in the region. ONLF is allied with a number of other smaller Ogaden parties and their expressed ambition is to eventually establish the region as an independent state. Opposing such ambitions are parties representing other, mainly non-Darod, clans in the area such as the Isaq, the Dir, the Hawiye and others. Recently an alliance between several of the smaller parties calling itself the Ethiopian Somali Democratic League (ESDL) was set up. ESDL is headed by Abdulmajid Hussein, the Ethiopian minister for external economic cooperation, who is an Isaq. EPRDF Prime Minster Tamrat Layne delivered a speech at the founding conference, which could be interpreted as an attempt by the EPRDF to gain political influence in the region. EPRDF member organizations of affiliates dominate all other regional governments except that of the Afar region. The tension between ONLF and EPRDF rose considerably with ONLF's recent accusation that a number of its members had been subjected to "extra-judicial" executions and political persecution by the EPRDF. Underlying many of the conflicts in the region are matters related to resource control. Region five remains - even by Ethiopian standards - isolated and impoverished. The regional capital Gode lacks regular communication links with the rest of the country and is not even connected by telephone. Twenty years of war, refugee migrations and political unrest in the region have also gravely affected the pastoralist economy and the region has seen several outbreaks of famine during the past two years of unrest. Since all Ethiopian regional governments are expected to raise their own revenues through taxation, the government of region five face delicate problem given the weak financial status of most of its inhabitants. Adding to the worries are the long-standing conflicts over the grazing lands in the best-watered northern parts of Region Five, the so-called Haud. An ONLF representative told SNU that the area belongs to the Ogadeen clan and that they have only allowed other clans to graze there. Another source of potential conflict is the trade with the khat grown around Harar. The trade to Djibouti and Somaliland is more or less in the hands of Iise and Isaq with some Afar merchants trying to get a share of the business with Djibouti. The trade is enormously profitable implying an overwhelming risk for conflicts over the control. The only potentially important natural resource - the gas fields in Kalubo and Hilaala - may also become a another source of conflict between the ONLF's aspirations for independence and the needs of the central EPRDF government. A World Bank sponsored development scheme is still waiting for a central government approval to be able to go ahead and explore the resource. G12: "WE ARE GOING TO REACH AN AGREEMENT" (SNU, Uppsala, March 6) - The group of 12 loosely allied Somali militias that have been holding talks in Cairo on Saturday told Egypt's Foreign Minister Amr Moussa that they were set on forming a government before the major peace-keeping forces pull out on March 31. Indicating that no agreement had yet been reached, self-styled interim president Ali Madhi told reporters that "The G12 are going to reach an agreement and put it in front of the Somalis...We hope all the Somalis will accept this proposal and form the government as soon as possible". Aideed's Somali National Alliance (SNA) has dismissed the Cairo talks as irrelevant but said Somalia's rival factions could meet within weeks on home soil to discuss the future of their shattered country. On Friday night Egyptian and Pakistani troops were attacked by gunmen thought to belong to the SNA movement. No details on the talks held in Cairo have yet been released but SSDF's leader General Mohammed Abshir Muse revealed in an interview with Egyptian daily Al-Ahram on March 1 that they were seeking some form of rotating presidential committee. A Reuters telegram yesterday confirmed this and added that Aideed would naturally be granted a place in such a committee. Some form of rotating scheme of presidency has long figured in informal talks held among the group of twelve. The original inspiration for this is said to have come from the Malaysian troops in Mogadishu. A fundamental disagreement in all previous discussions has been the number of parties to be involved in such a rotation. Due to the deep-rooted internal conflicts among both Daarood and Hawiye clans, the most obvious solution - to base the rotation on clanship - has been deemed impractical. ____________________________________________________________________ SNU is an entirely independent newsletter devoted to critical analysis of the political and humanitarian developments in Somalia and Somaliland. SNU is edited and published by Dr. Bernhard Helander, Uppsala University, Sweden. SNU is produced with support from the Scandinavian Institute of African Studies, Uppsala, Sweden. ____________________________________________________________________