In this issue: * ZENAWI AND BOUTROS-GHALI: "CONCEPTUAL DIFFERENCES" * OAU'S DANGEROUS PATH * ALI MAHDI THREATENS TO RE-ARM ____________________________________________________________________ S O M A L I A N E W S U P D A T E ____________________________________________________________________ Vol 2, No 23 October 25, 1993. ISSN 1103-1999 ____________________________________________________________________ Somalia News Update is published irregularly via electronic mail and fax. Questions can be directed to Bernhard.Helander@antro.uu.se or to fax number +46-18-151160. All SNU marked material is free to quote as long as the source is clearly stated. ____________________________________________________________________ ZENAWI AND BOUTROS-GHALI: "CONCEPTUAL DIFFERENCES" (SNU, Addis Ababa, October 23) - UN secretary-general Dr Boutros Boutros-Ghali made a quick visit to Ethiopian President Meles Zenawi today, trying to close the gap between the attitudes of regional mediators and UNOSOM to the hunt for General Aydiid. After two hours of talks, Boutros-Ghali for Cairo left without giving a scheduled press conference, saying the talks had been useful and positive. However, the Ethiopian Vice-Minister of Foreign Affairs, Dr Tekeda Alemu, admitted there remained "conceptual differences". Completing a tour of the Horn of Africa region, Boutros-Ghali arrived in Addis Ababa from Baidoa, where his reception had been mixed, with stone throwing crowds protesting his visit. His trip has taken him to Cairo, Djibouti, Kenya and Somalia. In between meeting Presidents Daniel Arap Moi of Kenya, and Hassan Gouled Aptidon of Djibouti, as well as Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia, he is attempting to prepare a report for the Security Council, originally due on October 31 and already put back to November 15. The UN secretary-general's main headache apart from Aydiid is to make a credible plan for UNOSOM II (or will it be III?) after the withdrawal of US, French and Belgian contingents. The vexing question which divides the UN from regional negotiators is whether to reward Aydiid's attacks in Mogadishu with a continued role in the transitional arrangements agreed to at Addis Ababa in March 1993 or whether to exclude him from a new conference and continue to pursue him in connection with the killing of Pakistani blue helmets in June. Admiral Howe, when in Addis Ababa recently, said the SNA coalition, at least, would still qualify for participation. Presidents in the region, recently joined by Hassan Gouled of Djibouti in a speech, have emphasized that the Somali situation is an African affair, and that excluding any Somali party from future discussions can only fail in the long term. President Meles of Ethiopia has been given a special role both by the Organization of African Unity (OAU) and the Horn of Africa's Inter Governmental Authority on Drought and Development (IGADD) to seek solutions to the Somali problem. Regional mediation is also coordinated through the Standing Committee on the Horn of Africa based in Addis Ababa. The US had fewer compunctions than the UN in making use of these local diplomats - Robert Oakley, the US's first special envoy, when in Mogadishu used to call Meles daily to keep him up to date. On this occasion, Boutros-Ghali and Meles seem not to have agreed, and the Secretary-General has left James Jonah, UN under- secretary General for Special Political Questions in Addis Ababa to continue discussions until Tuesday. The Ethiopian position, as explained by Vice Minister for Foreign Affairs, Dr Tekeda Alemu, is that nobody should be excluded from a future reconciliation conference, especially in the light of past experience. An independent commission may be established to investigate the killing of Pakistani peace-keepers in June as a compromise. OAU'S DANGEROUS PATH (SNU, Uppsala, October 24) With the US abandoning it's Somalia commitment and the UN desperately in search of new nations to police to the Addis Ababa agreement on cease-fire and disarmament, OAU now sees a new chance to regain it's lost Somali cause. Throughout the three year's civil war in Somalia the OAU has persistently failed to commit itself in any tangible way to be part of a solution of the crisis. With the exception of high-level meetings with various representatives from the Somali factions, it is fair to sum up OAU's role as practically inert. The UN in Somalia has at least gradually come to accept that no peace-accord in Somalia can be reached unless it involves the traditional leadership of the clans and seeks to reconcile differences starting from the bottom of the system. The OAU, however, with its vehement disregard for traditional African political systems, can be trusted to abandon every policy that in the least resembles popular participation. Salim Ahmed Salim, the OAU's secretary-general and former minister of foreign affairs in Tanzania told IPS's reporter Anaclet Rwegayura that OAU would be prepared to tear up the Addis Ababa agreement. Salim cautiously admits that "we must avoid the temptation to believe we know better about how Somalia should be ruled, our role should be to help -- and never to impose -- institutions of government". However, he goes on to urge that the solution to the Somali crisis rests within the air-conditioned world of international diplomacy and paper agreements. Salim believes political moves to rebuild Somalia still may not be a smooth-sailing alternative, although widely desirable and likely to succeed. Painstaking diplomatic efforts must be brought into operation, Salim told IPS. Salim seems to be pondering a possible abandonment of the disarmament policy: "Although disarmament remains a crucial prerequisite for stability in Somalia, it is equally a thorn in the flesh of all working toward a peaceful settlement", he says cryptically. There has been no significant progress to disarm antagonistic factions, despite the collective agreement by their leaders in March to hand over the arms. "Restoration of peace and harmony is the ultimate challenge of the Somali people", emphasises the OAU secretary-general. ALI MAHDI THREATENS TO RE-ARM (UPI, Washington, October 23) US officials expressed concern Friday after an influential Somali faction leader warned that his clan might re-arm if the United Nations does not weaken rival faction leader Mohamed Farah Aideed. State Department spokesman David Johnson said clan leader Ali Mahdi met with a US representative in Mogadishu on Thursday to "share his concern about the possibility of a new outbreak of clan warfare". Mahdi told reporters that his clan will be forced to re-arm unless Aideed's men were disarmed by United Nations peacekeeping forces. He also said he would reject any contact with his rival in any future political negotiations. He made his remarks on the same day he was visited by Stevenson McIlvane, deputy chief of the American mission "We ourselves are greatly disturbed at recent reports that Somalis are starting to re-arm themselves, and there is an increasing possibility of an outbreak of fighting," Johnson said. The warring factions in Somalia are concerned that Aideed's forces will emerge dominant when US troops withdraw on March 31. There is also concern by faction leaders that Aideed may have won concessions in return for the release of a US soldier held captive by his forces following a failed mission against the elusive warlord. Other faction leaders have since shown concern at the future political state of the east African country without the authority of the US Aideed's armed clan continues to control much of southern Mogadishu, while Mahdi's forces, which controlled the north of the capital, supported UN. peacekeeping efforts and agreed to disarm. ____________________________________________________________________ SNU is an entirely independent newsletter devoted to critical analysis of the political and humanitarian developments in Somalia and Somaliland. SNU is edited and published by Dr. Bernhard Helander, Uppsala University, Sweden. SNU is produced with support from the Scandinavian Institute of African Studies, Uppsala, Sweden. ____________________________________________________________________