Date:         Wed, 07 Aug 96 08:30:49 EDT
From: "T R. Young" <34LPF6T@CMUVM.CSV.CMICH.EDU>
Organization: Central Michigan University
Subject:      Rivers of Knowledge and Unsearchable Councils
To: GRADUATE STUDENTS IN SOCIOLOGY <SOCGRAD@CSF.COLORADO.EDU>
Message-Id:   <960807.083222.EDT.34LPF6T@CMUVM.CSV.CMICH.EDU>
The Study of Non-linear Dynamics is well established in the physical
and biological sciences...a new section on Chaos Theory and Non-
Linear Dynamics has been added to the American Psychological Asso-
ciation.  There has been a bit of work in economics and much less
in sociology.

I am happy to report that, at the International Sociological Asso-
ciation Meetings at the University of Essex, 1996, there were some 12
papers, of which three deserve special attention since they offer
both the basic research design as well as the analytic tools with
which to search for the loose patterns deep in complex data sets.

I will report, briefly, on the papers along with one just recieved
from colleague at U/Alberta, Canada.  In passing, I will try to
explain, briefly, the great potential for this new science for a
few topics of interest to progressives everywhere.

A.  Hamilton, Patti, 'Applications of Chaos theory to Social Science
    Research.'  This paper was the lead paper and the most advanced
    of the four data based papers presented.  Hamilton and her team
    at Texas Woman's University analysed 1.2 million cases of teen-
    age birthing and found two hidden attractors buried deep in a
    very noisy set of data.  They used new analytic software to
    process the data.  Email:  <f_hamilton@venus.twu.edu>

    Hamilton showed that social behavior was driven by a complex
    algorithm in which biology served as the source of order while
    disorder arose from the objective social conditions in which the
    teen-age mothers found themselves.  The changing mix of order
    and dis-order can not be tracked by standard research protocols
    based upon the assumption of order and the search for tight
    correlations.

B.  Sportsman, Susan.  'Chaos in Health Systems.'  Sportsman studied
    the effects of 3rd party carriers on health insurance for
    quality and quantity of health care for women in hospital for
    delivery.  She suggested the algorithm which produced non-lin-
    earity in birthing services probably had to do with the degree
    to which M.D.'s had control over billing procedures.

C.  Mitchell, De Ann.  "Non-linear Analysis of Weaning Data."
    Mitchell searched for evidence of non-lineary in the respiratory
    rate of patients who were 'weaned' from  mechanical ventilators.
    She displayed graphics which showed how the order hidden in her
    data were revealed by the three pieces of software she used to
    analyse the data.  These graphics were constrasted to standard
    analytic tools which did not catch the complexity in the data.

D.  Solomonovich, M., L.P. Apedaile, H.I. Freedman, A.H. Gebremedihen,
    S.G.M. Schilizzi and L. Belostotski.  'Sustainable Agri-
    Culture: A Dyanmical Economic Model.'  Solomonovich and his
    Associates at U/Alberta addressed the ways in which a complex
    3-dimensional system behaved.
       The three sub-systems were the ecosphere, agriculture and
    industry.  The model demonstrated that given settings of the
    three variables produced strange attractors.  The interesting
    thing about the model is that it can be used to show how to
    manipulate the variables in order to achieve 'favorable'
    dynamics...that is to say, to get the mix of order and disorder
    deemed right.

E.  Discussion:  There are rivers of knowledge awaiting to be
    explored by social science.  Consider the following:

    1.  There is a changing ratio of order to dis-order in complex
        social dynamics.  These papers serve as models in social
        science research.  Rather than look for high correlations
        predictability and rational/formal theory, Chaos theory
        instructs us to look for the factors which drive a system
        into ever greater disorder.  It also sets the quest for
        the change points which transform sameness into similarity;
        similarity into qualitatively different dynamics; difference
        into great dis-order.

    2.  There are great advantages to dis-order: it is the realm of
        change, renewal, surprize and survival in a ceaselessly
        changing environment.  Non-linear social dynamics support
        the mix of order and dis-order needed for creativity and
        dependability in marriage, business, governance, education
        and the arts.  It provides the possibility of poetic genius
        in symbolic interaction, religion and recreation.

    3.  It is the realm in which both organic evolution takes the
        great qualitative leaps lost to archeology and anthropology
        as well as the arena in which social revolution bursts out
        to alter oppressive social relations.

    4.  Human agency expands and contracts as the ratio between
        order and disorder change.  Too much order impairs human
        agency; too little order makes planning, goal-seeking and
        intentionality very, very difficult.

    5.  Chaos theory re-unites the physical, biological and social
        sciences in ways not imaginable to those who separated them
        in the 19th century.  The research designs now being devel-
        oped in the social sciences will ground a much different
        politics as well as a post-modern philosophy of science.

The 1996 Meetings of the ISA serve as a base point to which those
in the history of social science can point as an event comparable
to the work of Comte, Durkheim, Marx and Weber in the 19th century.

                                                      TR Young