Fri, 2 Dec 1994 07:23:59 -0800 for <SOCGRAD@UCSD.EDU>
From: lichter@nicco.sscnet.ucla.edu (Michael Lichter)
Date: Thu, 1 Dec 1994 23:48:56 +0000
To: "T R. Young" <34LPF6T@CMUVM.CSV.CMICH.EDU>
Subject: Re: Causality, Chaos and Postmodern Phil/Sci
To all gradual students in sociology [love the phrase, Michael!], my
reply to Michael Licter's questions re: Chaos/complexity theory follows.

First, Chaos theory is a very technical theory based upon the nonlinear
dynamics of a very deterministic algorithm...that is, two or more
complex numbers which, when feedback into the result of earlier
interaction, produce a very regular transformation from order to dis-
order.

Complexity theory deals with much more complex feedback loops...the
same nonlinearity is found but is much less 'deterministic,' i.e., it
is much more difficult to discover the algorithm [s] which produce
the leaps, turns, twists, jumps and otherwise unexpected patterns of
events.

Whether the same elegant patterns found in simple chaotic regimes
[modelled by the bifurcation maps so often seen in the literature],
are to be found in social dynamics...that is still an open question
since the basic research is not in place.  I tend to think that much
of the things one can say about simple chaotic regimes will be found
to be useful in sorting out the generation of, say, new forms of crime,
new forms of gendering, new forms of marriage/cohabitation, new forms
of racism and new forms of religion.  There are two pieces of work which
tend to confirm that suspicion...first there is the work of Dr. Patricia
Hamilton and her colleagues at Texas Woman's University...they have
found two hidden attractors [fuzzy patterns] in a large data set from
records kept by the State of Texas on births to teen age women.  They are
now looking for the factors which produce each attractor.

Then too, there is the work of Brian Berry at U/Texas, Dallas who has
reported that both the 50 year Kondratieff cycles and the 15 year
Kutznet cycles behave nonlinearily.

----------------------------Original message----------------------------
T.R., et. al.,

My understanding of Chaos Theory (CT) is that it provides a framework
for understanding the complex behavior of *deterministic* (physical)
*systems*.  Even relatively simple systems which operate according to
fixed rules can display complex patterns of behavior which are for all
practical purposes unpredictable.  Ben Goertzel (Ted's son) calls choas
"deterministic unpredictability."

My question to you is: are you arguing that human society (or some
subset thereof) meets the assumptions of CT (that it is a chaotic
system in the CT sense), or are you saying instead that while human
society is not a CT-type chaotic system, CT can help us imagine
explanations for social phenomena?

Ans: The later more than the former would be my present position
until we have a lot better reading on these nonlinear dynamics.

Personally, I think that if anything is non-deterministic, then human
behavior is.  I am skeptical that CT has anything to offer for
understanding society because society does not operate according to CT
rules.

Ans:  I too, think that human/social behavior is non-deterministic in
the sense that causality opens and closes.  I made that case in an
article in Humanity and Society a couple years ago...entitled Chaos
and Human Agency...I made the case that, at any scale of observation,
certainty was replaced by variety...that in complex dynamics there are
moments when human agency [esp. collective human agency] is possible
more so than at other time...the interesting thing to look for/at is
whether there is 'pattern' in the cycles of freedom and necessity which
catch us all.

I'll try to keep members of socgrad up to date on new evidence to Michael's
questions as I hear from those active in the area.  I will teach [post-
modern symbolic interaction/social psych at TWU beginning in Jan. and will
be able to follow the Hamilton research closely...it is, in my considered
opinion, very important.

Thanks Michael, for the questions.
                                                      T.R.Y.


P.S.: I've met Goetzel's son, Ben...he was very good at the third annual
conference on Chaos/Complexity in Canada...Ted tells me Ben moved to New
Zealand...our loss, their gain.


--
Michael Lichter <lichter@nicco.sscnet.ucla.edu> -----------------------------+
Department of Sociology                                                      |
University of California, Los Angeles ---------------------------------------+