Date: Tue, 23 Jul 96 15:23:30 -24000 To: , From: "Richard Cincotta" Subject: Reply: KENYA / population & HIV/AIDS X-Incognito-SN: 643 X-Incognito-Format: VERSION=2.01a ENCRYPTED=NO Thanks for the question about Kenya (on POPENV-L). Here's what I found reported (USAID, 1995) --------------------------------------------------------------------------- KENYA ----- Fertility reduction - The modern method contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) among all women of reproductive age has increased from 9 percent in 1984 to an estimated 28 percent in 1995. - The total fertility rate (TFR) has decreased from 8.1 in 1977-78 to an estimated 4.9 in 1995. - The population growth rate (PGR) has decreased from 4.1 in 1980-85 to an estimated 2.7 in 1995. Had the PGR prevailing in the early 1980s persisted, Kenya's population could have been 58 million versus 41 million in the year 2020. - Related benefits include: * improved maternal and child health * women's right to control fertility extended * expanded educational and economic opportunities for women * economic growth facilitated through alignment of economic and population growth rates * degradation of natural resources slowed * contributing factors to instability mitigated (scarcity, urbanization, migration) In spite of these achievements, there is considerable unmet need for family planning and reproductive health services as reflected by the fact that: - 1.5 million Kenyan married women wish to stop childbearing or delay their next pregnancy but are not using family planning; - A gap persists between actual family size of 5.35 children and desired family size of 3.7 children; - One is six births is unintended and one in three mistimed; - As a result of increased demand, the cumulative family planning program cost between 1993 and 2010 will be $854 million.' ' In 1993, of the $23.1 million spent on family planning services, USAID funds accounted for 52 percent ($12 million). The next most prominent sources of support were ODA at 14 percent and the GOK at 9 percent (USAID/RAPID, 1994). HIV/AIDS prevention - More than 90 percent of Kenyan adults possess basic HIV/AIDS knowledge. Sixty-six percent of men and 50 percent of women believe they are at personal risk. Twelve percent of men currently using the condom and 34 percent have used condom (DHS, 1993). - As a result of condom use through 1993, 110,000 HIV infections and 1.3 million cases of sexually-transmitted disease have been averted (iwgAIDS, 1995) - The government is increasing financial resources for AIDS/STD prevention activities as evidenced by the assumption of a $40 million credit from the World Bank for a project targeting sexually transmitted infections. - Advocacy networks and coalitions of NGOs and religious groups have emerged or become stronger. - Private sector employers in the major cities have begun to undertake workplace programs which include discussions with managers about AIDS policies and programs and peer counselling. - Integration of HIV/AIDS with family planning has started. HIV/AIDS counselling and syndromic management of STDs are now being practiced in both public and private sector settings. Nevertheless, HIV continues to spread in Kenya at an alarming rate and within the decade, is likely to become Kenya's most serious health problem. - Adult HIV seroprevalence increased from 3.5 percent in 1990 to 7.5 percent in 1995 meaning that over 950,000 Kenyans were infected by the end of 1995. As of mid-1996, an estimated 1 million Kenyans are thought to be infected with HIV; over 60,000 of them are children. - As of June 18, 1996, there were 65,647 reported AIDS cases in Kenya -- the highest reported number in Africa; aclual AIDS cases in Kenya is thought to be four times higher. AIDS orphans now number 200,000. - Under the worst case, AIDS mortality is projected to shorten life expectancy in Kenya from 68 years to under 50 years by the year 2010. (U.S. Bureau of Census, 1995). - AIDS treatment costs are projected to increase from 17 percent of the GOK's health budget in 1990 to 79 percent by the year 2010. By 2005, the total COStS of AIDS could reduce Gross Domestic Product by 14.5 percent.