Date: Tue, 12 Dec 1995 18:49:15 -0500 To: Don Chisholm From: longwave@uunorth.north.net (E. Cheung) Subject: Re: Kondratieff Waves and Population Status: RO Hi Don; If you have a web browser, point it to the URL below for the Longwave Resource area, you will find out quite a bit more information on the longwave. The longwave is usually accredited to the Russian economist Nikolai Kondratieff who wrote about it approximately 70 years ago. It describes the economic fluctuations of approximately 50 - 60 years in length. My recent work has concluded that these fluctuations are actually caused by fluctuations in population growth. There is a baby-boom followed by a baby-bust every 50 - 60 years. Because of the unevenness in population growth, social and economic conditions are affected. If you take the decennial rate of change of population, decade over decade, a cycle of 50-60 years in population growth appears. This is noticeable in U.S. population from 1789 onwards, but most noticeable in Canadian population. Most economists know about the longwave. The great debate since Kondratieff has been the empirical evidence for its existence and its causes. Those that write about the longwave today are those that are involved in economics, and the social and political sciences. This is the brief explanation. I hope this helps. A longwave mailing list will be starting soon. If you need more information or wish to subscribe to the list when it is ready, let me know. regards, Edward Cheung. Toronto, Canada. >Hi Edward: >For those of us who have not heard of Kondratieff waves, could you >please give a brief descrition? >Thanks, >Don Chisholm /************************************************************************/ /* /\/\/\ The Longwave and Social Cycles Resource Centre /\/\/\ */ /* URL: http://web.idirect.com/~longwave/ */ /* /\/\/\/\/\/\ email: longwave@mail.north.net /\/\/\/\/\/\ */ /************************************************************************/